Abstract
We estimate the sensitivity of the regional growth forecast in the year 2002 due to expected changes in the travel time (TT) matrix. We use a dynamic panel model with spatial effects where the spatial dimension enters the explanatory variables in different ways. The spatial dimension is based on geographical distance between 227 cells in central Europe and the travel time matrix based on average train travel times. The regressor variables are constructed by a) the average past growth rates, where the travel times are used as weights, b) the average travel times across all cells (made comparable by index construction), c) the gravity potential variables based on GDP per capita, employment, productivity and population and d) dummy variables and other socio-demographic variables. We find that for the majority of the cells the relative differences in growth for the year 2020 is rather small. But there are differences as how many regions will benefit from improved train networks: GDP, employment, and population forecasts respond differently.
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Polasek, W., Berrer, H. (2006). Traffic Sensitivity of Long-term Regional Growth Forecasts. In: Spiliopoulou, M., Kruse, R., Borgelt, C., Nürnberger, A., Gaul, W. (eds) From Data and Information Analysis to Knowledge Engineering. Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-31314-1_61
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-31314-1_61
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
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