Abstract
In this paper, we model an agent-based economy in which heterogeneous agents (firms and a bank) interact in the financial markets. The heterogeneity is due to the balance sheet conditions and to size. In our simulations, at the aggregate level, output displays changes in trend and volatility giving rise to complex dynamics. The average solvency and liquidity ratios peak during recessions as empirical analysis shows. At the firm level the model generates: i) firm sizes left-skewed distributed, ii) growth rates Laplace distributed. Furthermore, small idiosyncratic shocks can generate large aggregate fluctuations.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Bernanke, B.S., Gertler, M.: Agency Costs, Net Worth and Business Fluctuations. American Economic Review 79 (1989) 14–31
Bernanke, B.S., Gertler, M.: Financial Fragility and Economic Performance. Quarterly Journal of Economics 105 (1990) 87–114
Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., Gilchrist, M.: The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework. In Taylor, J., Woodford, M., eds.: Handbook of Macroeconomics, Amsterdam: North Holland (1999)
Greenwald, B.C., Stiglitz, J.E.: Imperfect Information, Finance Constraints and Business Fluctuations. In Kohn, M., Tsiang, S.C., eds.: Finance Constraints, Expectations and Macroeconomics, Oxford, Oxford University Press (1988)
Greenwald, B.C., Stiglitz, J.E.: Macroeconomic Models with Equity and Credit Rationing. In Hubbard, R.G., ed.: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, Chicago, Chicago University Press (1990)
Greenwald, B.C., Stiglitz, J.E.: Financial Market imperfections and Business Cycles. Quarterly Journal of Economics 108 (1993) 77–114
Kiyotaki, N., Moore, G.: Credit Cycles. Journal of Political Economy 105 (1997) 211–248
Kiyotaki, N., Moore, G.: Balance-Sheet Contagion. American Economic Review Paper and Proceedings 92 (2002) 46–50
Cooley, T.F., Quadrini, V.: Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics. Technical report, mimeo (1999)
Ormerod, P., Mounfield, C.: Power Law Distribution of the Duration and Magnitude of Recessions in Capitalist Economies: Breakdown of Scaling. Physica A 293 (2001) 573–582
Stanley, M., Buldyrev, S., Havlin, S., Mantegna, R., Salinger, M., Stanley, E.: Zipf Plots and the Size Distribution of Firms. Economics Letters 49 (1995) 453–457
Axtell, R.: Zipf distribution of US firm sizes. Science 293 (2001) 1818–1820
Gaffeo, E., Gallegati, M., Giulioni, G., Palestrini, A.: Power Laws and Macroeconomic Fluctuations. Physica A forthcoming (2002)
Gaffeo, E., Gallegati, M., Palestrini, A.: On the Size Distribution of Firms: Additional Evidence from the G7 Countries. Physica A forthcoming (2002)
Delli Gatti, D., Gallegati, M., Palestrini, A.: Agent’s Heterogeneity, Aggregation and Economic Fluctuation. In Delli Gatti, D., Gallegati, M., Kirman, A.P., eds.: Interaction and Market Structure, Berlin, Springer (2000)
Aoki, M.: New Aprroaches to Macroeconomic Modeling. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1996)
Aoki, M.: Modeling Aggeregate Behavior and Fluctuation in Economics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2002)
Aoki, M., Yoshikawa, H.: Demand Saturation-Creation and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 48 (2002) 127–154
Minsky, H.P.: Can “it” Happen Again. Essay on Instability and Finance. M. E. Sharpe, Armonk N. Y. (1982)
Estrella, A., Park, S., Peristiani, S.: Capital Ratios as Predictors of Bank Failure. FRBNY Economic Policy Review july (2000) 33–52
Xavier Gabaix: Power laws and the origins of the business cycle. MIT, Department of Economics (2002)
Sutton, J.: Technology and Market Structure. Theory and History. MIT Press (1999)
Brock, W.A., Durlauf, S.: Interaction-Based Models. In Heckman, J., Leamer, E., eds.: Handbook of Econometrics (Vol. 5). North-Holland, Amsterdam (2000)
Forni, M., Lippi, M.: Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics. Oxford University Press (1997)
Stoker, T.: Empirical Approaches to the Problem of Aggregation over individuals. Journal of Economic Literature 21 (1993) 1827–74
Kirman, A.P.: Whom or What Does The Representative Individual Represnt. Journal of Economic Perspective 6 (1992) 117–36
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2003 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Gallegati, M., Giulioni, G., Kichiji, N. (2003). Complex Dynamics and Financial Fragility in an Agent Based Model. In: Kumar, V., Gavrilova, M.L., Tan, C.J.K., L’Ecuyer, P. (eds) Computational Science and Its Applications — ICCSA 2003. ICCSA 2003. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 2667. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-44839-X_81
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-44839-X_81
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-40155-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-44839-6
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive