Skip to main content

Empirical Analysis of Case-Based Reasoning and Other Prediction Methods in a Social Science Domain: Repeat Criminal Victimization

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 2689))

Abstract

Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) has been used successfully in many practical applications. In this paper, we present the value of Case-Based Reasoning for researchers in a novel task domain, criminology. In particular, some criminologists are interested in studying crime victims who are victims of multiple crime incidents. However, research progress has been slow, in part due to limitations in the statistical methods generally used in the field. We show that CBR provides a useful alternative, allowing better prediction than via other methods, and generating hypotheses as to what features are important predictors of repeat victimization. This paper details a systematic sequence of experiments with variations on CBR and comparisons to other related, competing methods. The research uses data from the United States’ National Crime Victimization Survey. CBR, with advance filtering of variables, was the best predictor in comparison to other machine learning methods. This approach may provide a fruitful new direction of research, particularly for criminology, but also for other academic research areas.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. McLaren, B. M. and Ashley, K. D., Assessing Relevance with Extensionally Defined Principles and Cases; In the Proceedings of AAAI-2000, Austin, Texas, August 2000.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Collins, J. J., B. G. Cox, and P. Langan: Job Activities and Personal Crime Victimization: Implications for Theory. Social Science Research 16 (1987) 345–360.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Johnson, S. D., K. Bowers, and A. Hirschfield. New Insights into the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Repeat Victimization. British Journal of Criminology 37 (1997) 224–241.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Lasley, J. R. and J. Rosenbaum: Routine Activities and Multiple Personal Victimization. Social Science Research 73 (1988) 47–50.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Osborn, D. R. and A. Tseloni: The Distribution of Household Property Crimes. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 14 (1998) 307–330.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Sampson, R. J. and J. D. Wooldredge: Linking the Micro-and Macro-Level Dimensions of Lifestyle-Routine Activity and Opportunity Models of Predatory Victimization. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 3 (1987) 371–393.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Robinson, M. B. Burglary Revictimization: The Time Period of Heightened Risk. British Journal of Criminology 38 (1998) 78–87.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Sparks, R. F. Multiple Victimization: Evidence, Theory, and Future Research. The Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology 72 (1981) 762–778.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Kolodner, J. Case-Based Reasoning. Los Altos, CA: Morgan Kaufmann. (1993)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Leake, D. Case Based Reasoning: Experiences, Lessons, and Future Directions. Menlo Park, California: AAAI Press/MIT Press. (1996)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Watson, I.D. Applying Case-Based Reasoning: Techniques for Enterprise Systems. Los Altos, California: Morgan Kaufmann,. (1997)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  12. L. Karl Branting: Reasoning with Rules and Precedents: A Computational Model of Legal Analysis, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, December 1999.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Ashley, K.D., 1991. Reasoning with cases and hypotheticals in HYPO, International Journal of Man-Machine Studies 34 (6) 753–796.

    Google Scholar 

  14. Kevin D. Ashley, Edwina L. Rissland: Compare and Contrast: A Test of Expertise. AAAI 1987: 273–278

    Google Scholar 

  15. Shiu, S.C.K: An Object-Oriented Expert System for Awarding Punishment for Serious Discipline Cases. In Workshop Proceedings on Practical Case-Based Reasoning Strategies for Building and Maintaining Corporate Memories, Munich, Germany (1999) II.3–II.8.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Toland, J. and B. Lees Applying Case-Based Reasoning to Law Enforcement. International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts Journal 15(2003)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Redmond, M. A. and A. Baveja: A Data-Driven Software Tool for Enabling Cooperative Information Sharing Among Police Departments. European Journal of Operational Research 141 (2002) 660–678.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  18. Line, C. Blackburn and M. Redmond: Predicting Community Crime Rates Using Artificial Intelligence Case-Based Reasoning Techniques. Paper presented at the annual meetings of the American Society of Criminology, Washington, D. C. (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  19. U. S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey. Washington, D. C. (1995)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Hindelang, M.J., M. R. Gottfredson, and J. Garofalo: Victims of Personal Crime: An Empirical Foundation for a Theory of Personal Victimization. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company. (1978)

    Google Scholar 

  21. Cohen, L. E. and M. Felson: Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach. American Sociological Review 44 (1979) 588–608.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Witten, I. H., and E. Frank. Data Mining, Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques with Java Implementations. San Francisco, CA: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Cost S., and S. Salzberg: A weighted nearest neighbor algorithm for learning with symbolic features. Machine Learning 10 (1993) 57–58.

    Google Scholar 

  24. Aha, D. W.: Lazy Learning. Artificial Intelligence Review 1:1–5 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Silverman, B. W. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. Chapman and Hall: London. (1986)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  26. Cleary, J.G. and L. E. Trigg: K*: An Instance-based Learner Using an Entropic Distance Measure. In Armand Prieditis, Stuart J. Russell (Eds.), Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Machine Learning. Stanford University, CA, Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. (1995)

    Google Scholar 

  27. Holte, R.C. Very Simple Classification Rules Perform Well on Most Commonly Used Datasets. Machine Learning 11 (1993) 63–91.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  28. Freund, Y. and R. E. Schapire: Large Margin Classification Using the Perceptron Algorithm. Proceedings of the 11th Annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory. New York, New York: ACM Press. (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  29. Quinlan, Ross C4.5: Programs for Machine Learning. San Mateo, CA.: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. (1993)

    Google Scholar 

  30. Kohavi, R. The Power of Decision Tables. In N. Lavrac and S. Wrobel, (Eds), Proceedings of European Conference on Machine Learning, Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence 914, Springer Verlag, Berlin, (1995) 174–189.

    Google Scholar 

  31. Iba, W., and P. Langley Induction of One-Level Decision Trees. Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning. Aberdeen, Scotland: Morgan Kaufmann. (1992)

    Google Scholar 

  32. Le Cessie, S. and J. C. Van Houwelingen Ridge Estimators in Logistic Regression. Applied Statistics 41 (1997) 191–201.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Platt, J. Fast Training of Support Vector Machines using Sequential Minimal Optimization. In B. Schölkopf, C. Burges, and A. Smola (eds.), Advances in Kernel Methods — Support Vector Learning. Boston, MA: MIT Press. (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  34. Wettschereck, D., D. W. Aha, and T. Mohri: A Review and Comparative Evaluation of Feature Weighting Methods for Lazy Learning Algorithms. Artificial Intelligence Review 11 (1997) 273–314.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Bonzano, A., P. Cunningham, and B. Smyth: Using Introspective Learning to Improve Retrieval in CBR: A Case Study in Air Traffic Control. ICCBR 1997: 291–302

    Google Scholar 

  36. Blum, A. L. and P. Langley: Selection of relevant features and examples in machine learning. Artificial Intelligence 97 (1997) 245–271

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  37. John, G., R. Kohavi, and K. Pflger: Irrelevant Features and the Subset Selection Problem. In W. W. Cohen and H. Hirsh, (eds.), Machine Learning: Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference. San Francisco, CA: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, (1994)

    Google Scholar 

  38. Shannon, C. E. A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System Tech. Journal., 27 (1948) 379–423, 623-656.

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  39. Kohavi, R., P. Langley, P., and Y. Yun: The Utility of Feature Weighting in Nearest-Neighbor Algorithms. In L. C. Aiello (Ed), Proceedings of the Ninth European Conference on Machine Learning. Prague: Springer-Verlag. (1997)

    Google Scholar 

  40. Hall, M. A. Correlation-Based Feature Selection for Discrete and Numeric Class Machine Learning. Proceedings of the Seventeenth International Conference on Machine Learning. Stanford University, CA, Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. (2000)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2003 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Redmond, M.A., Line, C.B. (2003). Empirical Analysis of Case-Based Reasoning and Other Prediction Methods in a Social Science Domain: Repeat Criminal Victimization. In: Ashley, K.D., Bridge, D.G. (eds) Case-Based Reasoning Research and Development. ICCBR 2003. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 2689. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-45006-8_35

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-45006-8_35

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-40433-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-540-45006-1

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics