Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

European Software Engineering Conference

ACM SIGSOFT Symposium on Foundations of Software Engineering

ESEC 1999, SIGSOFT FSE 1999: Software Engineering — ESEC/FSE ’99 pp 109–126Cite as

A Probabilistic Model for Software Projects

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:

  • 1367 Accesses

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNCS,volume 1687))

Abstract

A probabilistic model for software development projects is constructed. The model can be applied to compute an estimate for the development time of a project. The chances of succeeding with a given amount of time and the risk of deviating from the estimate can be computed as well. Examples show that the model behaves as expected when the input data are changed.

supported by a doctoral fellowship of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG at the Graduiertenkolleg Informatik, Saarbrücken

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Abdel-Hamid: “Adapting, Correcting and Perfecting Software Estimates: A Maintenance Metaphor”, IEEE Computer 26-3 (1993) 20–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Gray, MacDonell:“A Comparison of Techniques for Developing Predictive Models of Software Metrics”, Information and Software Technology 39 (1997) 425–437

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Kemerer: “An Empirical Validation of Software Cost Estimation Models”, Communications ACM 30-5 (1987) 416–429

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Kemerer: “Reliability of Function Point Measurements: A Field Experiment”, Communications ACM 36-2 (1993) 85–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Kitchenham, Taylor: “Software Project Development Cost Estimation”, Journal of Systems and Software 5 (1985) 267–278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Lederer, Prasad: “Nine Management Guidelines for Better Cost Estimating”, Communications ACM 35-2 (1992) 51–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Low, Jeffery: “Function Points in the Estimation and Evaluation of the Software Process”, IEEE Transactions Software Engineering 16-1 (1990) 64–71

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Matson, Barrett, Mellichamp: “Software Development Cost Estimation Using Function Points”, IEEE Transactions Software Engineering 20-4 (1994) 275–287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Padberg: “Ein wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretisches Modell für Softwareprozesse”, Technical Report (in German), Universität Saarbrücken 1997

    Google Scholar 

  10. Sallis, Tate, MacDonell: Software Engineering, 1995

    Google Scholar 

  11. Shepperd: Foundations of Software Measurement, 1995

    Google Scholar 

  12. Shepperd, Schofield, Kitchenham: “Effort Estimation Using Analogy”, ICSE 18, International Conference on Software Engineering (1996) 170–178

    Google Scholar 

  13. Srinivasan, Fisher: “Machine Learning Approaches to Estimating Software Development Effort”, IEEE Transactions Software Engineering 21-2 (1995) 126–137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Wittig, Finnie: “Using Artificial Neural Networks and Function Points to Estimate 4GL Software Development Effort”, Australian Journal of Information Systems 1 (1994) 87–94

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fakultät für Informatik, Universität Karlsruhe, Am Fasanengarten 5, 76131, Karlsruhe, Germany

    Dr.-Ing. Frank Padberg

  2. Fachbereich Informatik, Universität Saarbrücken, Germany

    Dr.-Ing. Frank Padberg

Authors
  1. Dr.-Ing. Frank Padberg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institut für Informatik (IAM), Universität Bern, Neubrückstr. 10, CH-3012, Bern, Switzerland

    Oscar Nierstrasz

  2. ONERA Centre de Toulouse, DPRS/SAE, 2, Ave. E. Belin, F-31055, Toulouse Cedex, France

    Michel Lemoine

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1999 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Padberg, F. (1999). A Probabilistic Model for Software Projects. In: Nierstrasz, O., Lemoine, M. (eds) Software Engineering — ESEC/FSE ’99. ESEC SIGSOFT FSE 1999 1999. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 1687. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-48166-4_8

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-48166-4_8

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-66538-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-540-48166-9

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation