On the decline of classical programming

Abstract

The paper puts forward the view that we are in a period of fundamental change in the nature of the I.T. business, in that the driving pressures are shifting from the supplier side to the applications user side. In part this is a long-term consequence of the unbundling of software pricing (discussed at the NATO conferences 25 years ago), and in part the consequence of the recent spectacular reductions in hardware costs. The paper discusses the consequences for business, education and research and it indicates the danger of rediscovering the problem of the “software crisis”, but at a new level of programming by the applications owners.