Skip to main content

Autoregressive Model Order Determination

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Intelligent Systems and Applications (IntelliSys 2018)

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 869))

Included in the following conference series:

  • 1774 Accesses

Abstract

Here investigation of some approaches for model order identification in the autoregressive model is presented for univariate time series prediction. The approaches are implemented in a software library used for the sake of financial predictions. The results for some real financial series using the considered alternative approaches are summarized and conclusions are presented for their applicability.

This work is supported by Eurorisk Systems Ltd.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M.: Time Series Analysis: forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San Francisco (1970)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  2. Brocklebank, J.C., Dickey, D.A.: SAS for Forecasting Time Series, 2nd edn. SAS Institute Inc., USA (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Chatfield, C.: The Analysis of Time Series. An Introduction, 5th edn. Chapman & Hall/CRC, London (1996)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  4. Faraway, J.: Time series forecasting with neural networks: a comparative study using the airline data. Appl. Statist. 47(2), 231–250 (1998)

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  5. Fu, Q., Fu, H., Sun, Y.: Self-exciting threshold auto-regressive model (SETAR) to forecast the well irrigation rice water requirement. Nat. Sci. 2(1), 36–43 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Hamilton, J.: Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ (1994). ISBN 0-691-04289-6

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  7. Huang, W., Nakamori, Y., Wang, S., Zhang, H.: Select the Size of Training Set for Financial Forecasting with Neural Networks. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 3497/2005, pp. 879–884. Springer, Berlin (2005)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  8. McNames, J., Suykens, J.A.K., Vandewalle, J.: Time series prediction. Competition. Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos 9(8), 1485–1500 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Palit, A.K., Popovic, D.: Computational Intelligence in Time Series Forecasting. Theory and Engineering Applications. Springer, Berlin (2005)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Touretzky, D., Laskowski, K.: Neural Networks for Time Series Prediction. 15-486/782: Artificial Neural Networks, Lectures, Carnegie Mellon University, Fall 2006. Data. Appl. Statist. 47(2), 231–250 (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Virili, F., Freisleben, B.: Nonstationarity and data preprocessing for neural network predictions of an economic time series. Int. Joint Conf. Neural Netw. 5, 129–134 (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  12. http://www.riskmetrics.com: Long Run Technical Document

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ventsislav Nikolov .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Nikolov, V. (2019). Autoregressive Model Order Determination. In: Arai, K., Kapoor, S., Bhatia, R. (eds) Intelligent Systems and Applications. IntelliSys 2018. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 869. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01057-7_45

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics