Abstract
In a deeply interconnected world of people and goods, infectious diseases constitute a serious threat. An active vigilance is required. The collection of adequate data is vital and coordinated by surveillance systems. It is widely-acknowledged that every case-reporting system has some degree of under-reporting and reporting delay in particular in HIV-AIDS Portuguese Surveillance System. To better understand the processes generating the reporting delays, which is an administrative process, it was used a flexible continuous time fully parametric survival analysis approach. It was taken into consideration the hierarchical administrative and organizational structure of the system as well as the relevant changes in the procedures throughout the time. The best multilevel structure to represent reporting delays in continuous time is the model where the individuals are nested into Reporting Entities (20.24% of the variance) which are nested into Type of services (8% of the variance) with the log-normal distribution.
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Acknowledgements
Luís Paulo Reis and Alexandra Oliveira were partially founded by the European Regional Development Fund through the programme COMPETE by FCT (Portugal) in the scope of the project PEst-UID/CEC/00027/2015 and QVida+: Estimação Contínua de Qualidade de Vida para Auxílio Eficaz à Decisão Clínica, NORTE010247FEDER003446, supported by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement.
Rita Gaio was partially supported by CMUP (UID/MAT/00144/2019), which is funded by FCT with national (MCTES) and European structural funds through the programs FEDER, under the partnership agreement PT2020.
The authors are grateful to Professor Henrique Barros, a former coordinator of the Coordenação Nacional para a Infecção VIH/SIDA, for the HIV/AIDS Portuguese data.
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Oliveira, A., Amorim, H., Gaio, R., Reis, L.P. (2019). Modelling Reporting Delays in a Multilevel Structured Surveillance System - Application to Portuguese HIV-AIDS Data. In: Rocha, Á., Adeli, H., Reis, L., Costanzo, S. (eds) New Knowledge in Information Systems and Technologies. WorldCIST'19 2019. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 930. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-16181-1_67
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