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Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining

PAKDD 2019: Trends and Applications in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining pp 28–37Cite as

A Cluster Ensemble Strategy for Asian Handicap Betting

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Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 11607))

Abstract

Football betting has grown rapidly in the past two decades, among which fixed odds betting and Asian handicap betting are the most popular mechanisms. Much previous research work mainly focus on fixed odds betting, however, it is lack of studying on Asian handicap betting. In this paper, we focus on Asian handicap betting and aim to propose an intelligent decision system that can make betting strategy. To achieve this, a cluster ensemble model is presented, which is based on the fact that matches with similar pattern of expected goal trend series may have the same actual outcome. Firstly, we set up the component cluster which classifies matches by the pattern of expected goal trend series and then makes the same betting decision for matches that belong to the same group. Furthermore, we adopt plurality voting approach to integrate component clusters and then determine the final betting strategy. Using this strategy on the big five European football leagues data, it yields a positive return.

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Acknowledgements

This work is partially supported by the Beijing StausWin Lottery Operations Technology Ltd. And we thank Yiran Gao and Jiang Yu for providing the data and odds.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China

    Yue Chen & Jian Shi

  2. School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Yue Chen & Jian Shi

Authors
  1. Yue Chen
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  2. Jian Shi
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Yue Chen or Jian Shi .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of Macau, Macao, China

    Leong Hou U.

  2. Singapore Management University, Singapore, Singapore

    Hady W. Lauw

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Chen, Y., Shi, J. (2019). A Cluster Ensemble Strategy for Asian Handicap Betting. In: U., L., Lauw, H. (eds) Trends and Applications in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. PAKDD 2019. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 11607. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26142-9_3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26142-9_3

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-26141-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-26142-9

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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