Abstract
Due to the depletion of fossil fuel and global warming, the incorporation of alternative low carbon emission energy generation becomes crucial for energy systems. The wind power is a popular energy source because of its environmental and economic benefits. However, the uncertainty of wind power, makes its incorporation in energy systems really difficult. To mitigate the risk of demand-supply imbalance by wind power, an accurate estimation of wind power is essential. Recognizing this challenging task, an efficient deep learning based prediction model is proposed for wind power forecasting. In this proposed model, Wavelet Packet Transform (WPT) is used to decompose the wind power signals. Along with decomposed signals and lagged inputs, multiple exogenous inputs (calendar variable, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)) are used as input to forecast wind power. Efficient Deep Convolution Neural Network (EDCNN) is employed to forecast wind power. The proposed model’s performance is evaluated on real data of Maine wind farm ISO NE, USA.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Zhao, Y.N., Ye, L., Li, Z., Song, X.R., Lang, Y.S., Su, J.: A novel bidirectional mechanism based on time series model for wind power forecasting. Appl. Energy 177, 793–803 (2016)
Jong, P., Kiperstok, A., Sanchez, A.S., Dargaville, R., Torres, E.A.: Integrating large scale wind power into the electricity grid in the Northeast of Brazil. Energy 100, 401–15 (2016)
Global Wind Energy Council. GWEC Global Wind Report (2016)
U.S. Department of Energy, Staff Report to the Secretary on Electricity Markets and Reliability (2017)
U.S. Department of Energy, 20% Wind energy by 2030: increasing wind energy’s contribution to US electricity supply, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (2008)
Chen, Z.: Wind power in modern power systems. J. Mod. Power Syst. Clean Energy 1(1), 2–13 (2013)
Haque, A.U., Nehrir, M.H., Mandal, P.: A hybrid intelligent model for deterministic and quantile regression approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 29(4), 1663–1672 (2014)
Kazmi, H.S.Z., Javaid, N., Imran, M.: Towards energy efficiency and trustfulness in complex networks using data science techniques and blockchain. MS thesis. COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI), Islamabad, Pakistan, July 2019
Zahid, M., Javaid, N., Rasheed, M.B.: Balancing electricity demand and supply in smart grids using blockchain. MS thesis. COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI), Islamabad, Pakistan, July 2019
Bano, H., Javaid, N., Rasheed, M.B.: Electricity price and load forecasting using enhanced machine learning techniques. MS thesis. COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI), Islamabad, Pakistan, July 2019
Juban, J., Siebert, N., Kariniotakis, G.N.: Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting for the optimal management of wind generation. In: Power Tech, 2007 IEEE Lausanne, pp. 683–688. IEEE (2007)
Wang, H.Z., Li, G.Q., Wang, G.B., Peng, J.C., Jiang, H., Liu, Y.T.: Deep learning based ensemble approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting. Appl. Energy 15(188), 56–70 (2017)
Torres, J.M., Aguilar, R.M.: Using deep learning to predict complex systems: a case study in wind farm generation. Complexity 2018, 10 (2018)
Coifman, R.R., Wickerhauser, M.V.: Entropy-based algorithms for best basis selection. IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 38(2), 713–8 (1992)
Burrus, C.S., Gopinath, R., Guo, H.: Introduction to Wavelets and Wavelet Transforms: A Primer. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River (1997)
ISO NE Market Operations Data. https://www.iso-ne.com. Accessed 20th Jan 2019
Derrac, J., Garcia, S., Molina, D., Herrera, F.: A practical tutorial on the use of nonparametric statistical tests as a methodology for comparing evolutionary and swarm intelligence algorithms. Swarm Evol. Comput. 1(1), 3–18 (2011)
Martin, P., Moreno, G., Rodriguez, F., Jimenez, J., Fernandez, I.: A hybrid approach to short-term load forecasting aimed at bad data detection in secondary substation monitoring equipment. Sensors 18(11), 3947 (2018)
Diebold, F.X., Mariano, R.S.: Comparing predictive accuracy. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 13, 253–63 (1995)
Chen, H., Wan, Q., Wang, Y.: Refined Diebold-Mariano test methods for the evaluation of wind power forecasting models. Energies 7(7), 4185–4198 (2014)
Lago, J., De Ridder, F., De Schutter, B.: Forecasting spot electricity prices: deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms. Appl. Energy 221, 386–405 (2018)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Mujeeb, S., Javaid, N., Gul, H., Daood, N., Shabbir, S., Arif, A. (2020). Wind Power Forecasting Based on Efficient Deep Convolution Neural Networks. In: Barolli, L., Hellinckx, P., Natwichai, J. (eds) Advances on P2P, Parallel, Grid, Cloud and Internet Computing. 3PGCIC 2019. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 96. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33509-0_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33509-0_5
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-33508-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-33509-0
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)