Abstract
In recent years, the demand for collective mobility services is characterized by a significant growth. The long-distance coach market has undergone an important change in Europe since FlixBus adopted a dynamic pricing strategy, providing low-cost transport services and an efficient and fast information system. This paper presents a methodology, called DA4PT (Data Analytics for Public Transport), aimed at discovering the factors that influence travelers in booking and purchasing a bus ticket. Starting from a set of 3.23 million user-generated event logs of a bus ticketing platform, the methodology shows the correlation rules between travel features and the purchase of a ticket. Such rules are then used to train a machine learning model for predicting whether a user will buy or not a ticket. The results obtained by this study reveal that factors such as occupancy rate, fare of a ticket, and number of days passed from booking to departure, have significant influence on traveler’s buying decisions. The methodology reaches an accuracy of 93% in forecasting the purchase of a ticket, showing the effectiveness of the proposed approach and the reliability of results.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Abdelghany, A., Guzhva, V.: A time-series modelling approach for airport short-term demand forecasting. J. Airport Manag. 5(1), 72–87 (2010)
Belcastro, L., Marozzo, F., Talia, D., Trunfio, P.: Using scalable data mining for predicting flight delays. ACM Trans. Intell. Syst. Technol. 8(1), 5:1–5:20 (2016)
Breiman, L.: Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45(1), 5–32 (2001)
Diamantini, C., Genga, L., Marozzo, F., Potena, D., Trunfio, P.: Discovering mobility patterns of Instagram users through process mining techniques. In: IEEE International Conference on Information Reuse and Integration, pp. 485–492 (2017)
Escobari, D.: Estimating dynamic demand for airlines. Econ. Lett. 124(1), 26–29 (2014)
Gremm, C.: Impacts of the German interurban bus market deregulation on regional railway services (2017)
Grimaldi, R., Augustin, K., Beria, P., et al.: Intercity coach liberalisation. The cases of Germany and Italy. In: World Conference on Transport Research-WCTR 2016, pp. 474–490. Elsevier BV (2017)
Kotsiantis, S., Kanellopoulos, D., Pintelas, P., et al.: Handling imbalanced datasets: a review. GESTS Int. Trans. Comput. Sci. Eng. 30(1), 25–36 (2006)
Liu, J., et al.: Personalized air travel prediction: a multi-factor perspective. ACM Trans. Intell. Syst. Technol. (TIST) 9(3), 1–26 (2017)
Maron, M.E.: Automatic indexing: an experimental inquiry. J. ACM (JACM) 8(3), 404–417 (1961)
Mumbower, S., Garrow, L.A., Higgins, M.J.: Estimating flight-level price elasticities using online airline data. Transp. Res. Part A: Policy Pract. 66, 196–212 (2014)
Pearson, K.: Determination of the coefficient of correlation. Science 30(757), 23–25 (1909)
Safavian, S.R., Landgrebe, D.: A survey of decision tree classifier methodology. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 21(3), 660–674 (1991)
Szopiński, T., Nowacki, R.: The influence of purchase date and flight duration over the dispersion of airline ticket prices. Contemp. Econ. 9(3), 253–366 (2015)
Talia, D., Trunfio, P., Marozzo, F.: Data Analysis in the Cloud: Models. Techniques and Applications (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/C2014-0-02172-7
Walker, S.H., Duncan, D.B.: Estimation of the probability of an event as a function of several independent variables. Biometrika 54(1–2), 167–179 (1967)
Yeboah, G., Cottrill, C.D., Nelson, J.D., Corsar, D., Markovic, M., Edwards, P.: Understanding factors influencing public transport passengers’ pre-travel information-seeking behaviour. Pub. Transp. 11(1), 135–158 (2019)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Branda, F., Marozzo, F., Talia, D. (2020). Discovering Travelers’ Purchasing Behavior from Public Transport Data. In: Nicosia, G., et al. Machine Learning, Optimization, and Data Science. LOD 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12565. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64583-0_63
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64583-0_63
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-64582-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-64583-0
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)