Trajectory Modelling in Shared Spaces: Expert-Based vs. Deep Learning Approach?

Abstract

Realistically modelling behaviour and interaction of heterogeneous road users (pedestrians and vehicles) in mixed-traffic zones (a.k.a. shared spaces) is challenging. The dynamic nature of the environment, heterogeneity of transport modes, and the absence of classical traffic rules make realistic microscopic traffic simulation hard problems. Existing multi-agent-based simulations of shared spaces largely use an expert-based approach, combining a symbolic (e.g. rule-based) modelling and reasoning paradigm (e.g. using BDI representations of beliefs and plans) with the hand-crafted encoding of the actual decision logic. More recently, deep learning (DL) models are largely used to derive and predict trajectories based on e.g. video data. In-depth studies comparing these two kinds of approaches are missing. In this work, we propose an expert-based model called GSFM that combines Social Force Model and Game theory and a DL model called LSTM-DBSCAN that manipulates Long Short-Term Memories and density-based clustering for multi-agent trajectory prediction. We create a common framework to run these two models in parallel to guarantee a fair comparison. Real-world mixed traffic data from shared spaces of different layout are used to calibrate/train and evaluate the models. The empirical results imply that both models can generate realistic predictions, but they differ in the way of handling collisions and mimicking heterogeneous behaviour. Via a thorough study, we draw the conclusion of their respective strengths and weaknesses.

Supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) through the Research Training Group SocialCars (GRK 1931). The authors thank the participants of the DFG research project MODIS (DFG project #248905318) for providing data sets.

F.T. Johora and H. Cheng—Contribute equally to this work.