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Herd Behavior Is Sufficient to Reproduce Human Evacuation Decisions During the Great East Japan Earthquake

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Agents and Artificial Intelligence (ICAART 2020)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 12613))

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Abstract

We previously developed an evacuation decision model to represent the herd behaviors of evacuees during a disaster evacuation and employed it to analyze symmetry breaking in evacuation exit choice, a phenomenon in which people tend to gather at one specific exit during an evacuation. This model had yet to be tested against real disaster data owing to a difficulty in acquiring such data. An analysis of video clips captured during the Great East Japan Earthquake revealed unusual evacuation behaviors of people in a meeting room, namely, the evacuation decision between fleeing and drop, cover, and hold-on actions depending on the distance from the exit. Such behaviors have yet to be reported in the literature. We conducted simulations and reproduced these evacuation behaviors using an evacuation decision model and determined that simple herd behaviors among evacuees are sufficient to reproduce these unusual evacuation behaviors. We also conducted logistic-regression, graph-centrality, and sensitivity analyses to examine the nature of these simulation results.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    https://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eqev/data/kyoshin/jishin/110311_tohokuchiho-taiheiyouoki/index.html

    (Observation Point: Sendai-shi, Miyagino-ku, Gorin).

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Acknowledgement

The author is grateful to Kei Marukawa for his helpful comments and suggestions. The author would like to thank Editage (www.editage.com) for English language editing.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. SECOM CO., LTD., Intelligent Systems Laboratory, Tokyo, Japan

    Akira Tsurushima

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  1. Akira Tsurushima
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Correspondence to Akira Tsurushima .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. LIACC, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal

    Ana Paula Rocha

  2. ICREA, Institute of Evolutionary Biology, Barcelona, Spain

    Luc Steels

  3. Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands

    Jaap van den Herik

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Tsurushima, A. (2021). Herd Behavior Is Sufficient to Reproduce Human Evacuation Decisions During the Great East Japan Earthquake. In: Rocha, A.P., Steels, L., van den Herik, J. (eds) Agents and Artificial Intelligence. ICAART 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12613. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-71158-0_1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-71158-0_1

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  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-71158-0

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