Abstract
Delays in air transport systems have a significant impact on the safety of aviation. We propose to use a trajectory of airplanes to estimate time of airplane delay. Surveillance data is obtained using the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast receiver. A network of software defined radios is used to receive position reports of particular airspace user transmitted by airplane transponder of Mode 1090ES. Linear regression with a spline function is used for airplane trajectory approximation and time synchronization. Delays are estimated based on rapid changing of airplane altitude with respect to runway elevation in comparison with a scheduled time. Statistical data of airplane take-off time, landing time, and flight duration based on numerous historical flights is analyzed. Probabilities of airplane delays during take-off and landing are estimated with a help of the Kernel density function. Proposed approach for probability estimation of aircraft departures and arrivals delays can be useful in air traffic management and airline planning for efficient usage of aviation transport system.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Aviation Benefits report 2017, IHLG (2017)
Accident Statistics, ICAO. https://www.icao.int/safety/iStars/Pages/Accident-Statistics.aspx. Accessed 15 Jan 2021
Safety Report 2018, 55th edn. International Air Transport Association, Geneva (2019)
Eurocontrol. https://www.eurocontrol.int/our-data. Accessed 18 Jan 2021
Ostroumov, I.V., Kuzmenko, N.S.: Risk assessment of mid-air collision based on positioning performance by navigational aids. In: 6th International Conference on Methods and Systems of Navigation and Motion Control, pp. 34–37. IEEE, Kyiv Ukraine (2020)
Ostroumov, I.V., Kuzmenko, N.S.: Risk Analysis of Positioning by Navigational Aids. In: International Conference Signal Processing Symposium, pp. 92–95. IEEE, Krakow Poland (2019).
Ostroumov, I.V., Kuzmenko, N.S.: An area navigation RNAV system performance monitoring and alerting. In: 1st International Conference System Analysis & Intelligent Computing, pp. 211–214. IEEE, Kyiv Ukraine (2018)
Airport Handling Manual (AHM), IATA (2020)
Mueller, E., Chatterji, G.: Analysis of aircraft arrival and departure delay characteristics. In: Aircraft Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Technical Forum, p. 5866, AIAA (2002)
Cao, Y., Zhang, L., Sun, D.: An air traffic prediction model based on kernel density estimation. In: American Control Conference, pp. 6333–6338, IEEE, Washington DC USA (2013)
Yufeng, T., Ball, M.O., Jank, W.S.: Estimating flight departure delay distributions – a statistical approach with long-term trend and short-term pattern. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 103(481), 112–125 (2008)
CODA digest. All-Causes Delay and Cancellations to Air Transport in Europe, Eurocontrol (2019)
CODA digest. All-Causes Delay and Cancellations to Air Transport in Europe, Eurocontrol (2015)
Certification Specifications and Acceptable Means of Compliance for Airborne Communications, Navigation and Surveillance. CS-ACNS. European Union Aviation Safety Agency. Annex I to ED Decision 2019/011/R, EASA (2019)
Technical Provisions for Mode S Services and Extended Squitter, Doc 9871, First Edition ICAO (2008)
Piracci, E.G., Galati, G., Pagnini, M.: ADS-B signals reception: A Software Defined Radio approach. In: Metrology for Aerospace (MetroAeroSpace), pp. 543–548. IEEE (2014)
Calvo-Palomino, R., Ricciato, F., Repas, B., Giustiniano, D., Lenders, V.: Nanosecond-precision time-of-arrival estimation for aircraft signals with low-cost SDR receivers. In: 17th ACM/IEEE International Conference on Information Processing in Sensor Networks (IPSN), pp. 272–277. IEEE (2018)
Ostroumov, I.V., Kuzmenko, N.S.: Interrogation rate measurements of distance measuring equipment in air navigation system. In: 2nd International Conference on System Analysis & Intelligent Computing (SAIC), pp. 1–5, Kyiv Ukraine, IEEE (2020)
Sun, J., Ellerbroek, J., Hoekstra, J.: Large-scale flight phase identification from ads-b data using machine learning methods. In: 7th International Conference on Research in Air Transportation, pp. 1–8, Philadelphia, USA, TUDelft (2016)
Nijsure, Y.A., Kaddoum, G., Gagnon, G., Gagnon, F., Yuen, C., Mahapatra, R.: Adaptive air-to-ground secure communication system based on ADS-B and wide-area multilateration. IEEE Trans. Veh. Technol. 65(5), 3150–3165 (2015)
Jan, S.S., Jheng, S.L., Tao, A.L.: Wide area multilateration evaluation test bed using USRP based ADS-B receiver. In: 26th International Technical Meeting of the Satellite Division of the Institute of Navigation, pp. 274–281, ION (2013)
Tran, T.N., Pham, D.T., Alam, S.: A map-matching algorithm for ground movement trajectory representation using A-SMGCS data. In: International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics for Air Transportation (AIDA-AT), pp. 1–8. IEEE (2020)
Tarasevich, S., Ostroumov, I.V.: A light statistical method of air traffic delays prediction. In: 2nd International Conference on System Analysis & Intelligent Computing (SAIC), pp. 1–5, IEEE (2020)
Ude, A., Atkeson, C.G., Riley, M.: Planning of joint trajectories for humanoid robots using B-spline wavelets. In: International Conference on Robotics and Automation 3, pp. 2223–2228. IEEE (2000)
Delahaye, D., Puechmorel, S., Tsiotras, P., Féron, E.: Mathematical models for aircraft trajectory design: a survey. Air Traffic Management and Systems, pp. 205–247. Springer, Tokyo (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54475-3_12
Biagiotti, L., Melchiorri, C.: B-spline based filters for multi-point trajectories planning. In: International Conference on Robotics and Automation, pp. 3065–3070, IEEE (2010).
Ostroumov, I.V., Marais, K., Kuzmenko, N.S., Fala, N.: Triple probability density distribution model in the task of aviation risk assessment. Aviation 24(2), 57–65 (2020)
Tsymbaliuk, I., Ivashchuk, O., Ostroumov, I.: Estimation the risk of airplane separation lost by statistical data processing of lateral deviations. In: 10th International Conference on Advanced Computer Information Technologies (ACIT), pp. 269–272, IEEE, Deggendof Germany (2020)
JooSeuk, K., Scott, C.: Robust kernel density estimation. Mach. Learn. Res. 13(1), 2529–2565 (2012)
Zhixiao, X., Yan, J.: Kernel density estimation of traffic accidents in a network space. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 32(5), 396–406 (2008)
Yen-Chi. C: A tutorial on kernel density estimation and recent advances. Biostatistics Epidemiol. 1(1), 161–187 (2017)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2021 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Ostroumov, I. et al. (2021). A Probability Estimation of Aircraft Departures and Arrivals Delays. In: Gervasi, O., et al. Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2021. ICCSA 2021. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12950. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86960-1_26
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86960-1_26
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-86959-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-86960-1
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)