Skip to main content

Abstract

The term flash-flood refers to the sudden raise in the water levels in a basin due to an abrupt change in the weather conditions. Early detection of flash-floods reduces the harm that they can produce in the infrastructure or even in preventing human losses. Up to now, the studies focus on the dynamics of the basins, determining how the water levels would be in a considered scenario. However, nothing have been done concerning the online prediction of flash-floods. This research focuses on this topic, proposing a Case-Based Reasoning tool to cope with the estimation of the water levels on a basin based on the current basin conditions and the weather forecast. Furthermore, this CBR tool has been designed to work in different basins provided enough data is available, either from past experiences or from simulation. This research is being designed, developed on two real basins, one from Spain and one from France; however, the experimentation has only been addressed with realistic data from the Venero-Claro basin in Spain. Expectancy is that the performance of the CBR tool will perfectly mimic the decision making of the public safety experts.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Li, W., Lin, K., Zhao, T., Lan, T., Chen, X., Du, H., Chen, H.: Risk assessment and sensitivity analysis of flash floods in ungauged basins using coupled hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. J. Hydrol. 572, 108–120 (2019) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.002. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169419302197

  2. Lin, K., Chen, H., Xu, C.Y., Yan, P., Lan, T., Liu, Z., Dong, C.: Assessment of flash flood risk based on improved analytic hierarchy process method and integrated maximum likelihood clustering algorithm. J. Hydrol. 584, 124696 (2020) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124696. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169420301566

  3. Mishra, K., Sinha, R.: Flood risk assessment in the kosi megafan using multi-criteria decision analysis: A hydro-geomorphic approach. Geomorphology 350, 106861 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106861. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X19303502

  4. Ngo, P.T.T., Hoang, N.D., Pradhan, B., Nguyen, Q.K., Tran, X.T., Nguyen, Q.M., Nguyen, V.N., Samui, P., Tien Bui, D.: A novel hybrid swarm optimized multilayer neural network for spatial prediction of flash floods in tropical areas using sentinel-1 sar imagery and geospatial data. Sensors 18(11) (2018). DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/s18113704,https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/18/11/3704

  5. Pradhan, B., Lee, S.: Landslide susceptibility assessment and factor effect analysis: backpropagation artificial neural networks and their comparison with frequency ratio and bivariate logistic regression modelling. Environ. Modell. Softw. 25(6), 747–759 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.10.016. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815209002886

  6. Rahmati, O., Pourghasemi, H.R.: Identification of critical flood prone areas in data-scarce and ungauged regions: a comparison of three data mining models. Water Resour. Manage 31(5), 1473–1487 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1589-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Shadmehri Toosi, A., Calbimonte, G.H., Nouri, H., Alaghmand, S.: River basin-scale flood hazard assessment using a modified multi-criteria decision analysis approach: a case study. J. Hydrol. 574, 660–671 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.072. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169419304123

  8. Sobol, I.: Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates. Math. Comput. Simul. 55, 271–280 (2001)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  9. Tehrany, M.S., Kumar, L.: The application of a Dempster–Shafer-based evidential belief function in flood susceptibility mapping and comparison with frequency ratio and logistic regression methods. Environmental Earth Sciences 77(13), 1–24 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7667-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Tehrany, M.S., Pradhan, B., Jebur, M.N.: Spatial prediction of flood susceptible areas using rule based decision tree (dt) and a novel ensemble bivariate and multivariate statistical models in gis. J. Hydrol. 504, 69–79 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.09.034. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169413006872

  11. Tehrany, M.S., Pradhan, B., Mansor, S., Ahmad, N.: Flood susceptibility assessment using gis-based support vector machine model with different kernel types. CATENA 125, 91–101 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.10.017. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S034181621400294X

  12. Terêncio, D., Fernandes, L.S., Cortes, R., Moura, J., Pacheco, F.: Flood risk attenuation in critical zones of continental Portugal using sustainable detention basins. Sci. Total Environ. 721, 137727 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137727. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720312389

  13. Wyżga, B., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Konieczny, R., Piniewski, M., Zawiejska, J., Radecki-Pawlik, A.: Comprehensive approach to the reduction of river flood risk: case study of the upper vistula basin. Sci. Total Environ. 631–632, 1251–1267 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.015. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718307708

  14. Zhang, Y., Wang, Y., Chen, Y., Liang, F., Liu, H.: Assessment of future flash flood inundations in coastal regions under climate change scenarios-a case study of hadahe river basin in northeastern china. Sci. Total Environ. 693, 133550 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.356. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719334709

  15. Ţîncu, R., Zêzere, J.L., Crǎciun, I., Lazǎr, G., Lazǎr, I.: Quantitative micro-scale flood risk assessment in a section of the trotuş river, romania. Land Use Policy 95, 103881 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.02.040. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837718311116

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research has been founded by European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (project DIH4CPS) under the Grant Agreement no 872548. Furthermore, this research has been funded by the SUDOE Interreg Program -grant INUNDATIO SOE3/P4/E0929-, by the Spanish Ministry of Economics and Industry, grant PID2020-112726RB-I00, by the Spanish Research Agency (AEI, Spain) under grant agreement RED2018-102312-T (IA-Biomed), by CDTI (Centro para el Desarrollo Tecnológico Industrial) under projects CER-20211003 and CER-20211022, by and Missions Science and Innovation project MIG-20211008 (INMERBOT). Also, by Principado de Asturias, grant SV-PA-21-AYUD/2021/50994 and by ICE (Junta de Castilla y León) under project CCTT3/20/BU/0002.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to José Ramón Villar .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Fernádez, E., Villar, J.R., Navarro, A., Sedano, J. (2023). Case-Based Reasoning for the Prediction of Flash Flood. In: García Bringas, P., et al. 17th International Conference on Soft Computing Models in Industrial and Environmental Applications (SOCO 2022). SOCO 2022. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 531. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-18050-7_58

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics