Skip to main content

Simulating Sustainability: Guiding Principles to Ensure Policy Impact

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 9086))

Abstract

This paper showcases examples for surprising emergent phenomena from agent-based models developed to support sustainability-focused decision making. Based on these experiences, ten guiding principles are proposed to minimize the risk of redundancy and inefficacy of agent-based modeling due to the widening gap between scientific endeavors and policy deliberations. These guiding principles are not meant to constitute a comprehensive list but to trigger a debate aiming for a continuous improvement of recommendations for applied agent-based modeling in sustainability related policy contexts.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Amblard, F., Bommel, P., Rouchier, J.: Assessment and validation of multi-agent models. In: Phan, D., Amblard, F. (eds.) Agent-based modelling and simulation in the social and human sciences, pp. 93–114. The Bardwell Press, Oxford (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Barreteau, O., Bots, P.W.G., Daniell, K.A.: A Framework for Clarifying “Participation” in Participatory Research to Prevent its Rejection for the Wrong Reasons. Ecology and Society 15(2), 1 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Barreteau, O., Smajgl, A.: Designing Empirical Agent-based models: An issue of matching data, technical requirements and stakeholder expectations. In: Smajgl, A., Barreteau, O. (eds.) The Characterisation and Parameterisation of Empirical Agent-based models, vol. 1, pp. 217–229. Springer, New York (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Bohensky, E., Smajgl, A., Herr, A.: Calibrating behavioural variables in agent-based models: insights from a case study in east kalimantan, indonesia. Paper Presented at the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2007), Virginia Beach, VA (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  5. d’Aquino, P., Bah, A.: A participatory modeling process to capture indigenous ways of adaptability to uncertainty: outputs from an experiment in West African drylands. Ecology and Society 18(4), 16 (2013). doi:10.5751/ES-05876-180416

    Google Scholar 

  6. Edmonds, B., Hernández, C., Troitzsch, K. (Eds.). Social Simulation: Technologies, Advances and New Discoveries: IGI Global (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Ernst, A.: Using Spatially explicit Marketing Data to Build Social Simulations. In: Smajgl, A., Barreteau, O. (eds.) Empirical Agent-based Modelling - Challenges and Solutions: Volume 1, The Characterisation and Parameterisation of Empirical Agent-based Models, vol. 1. Springer, New York (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Gilbert, N.: Agent-based models. SAGE Publications, Los Angeles (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Gray, R., Fulton, E.A., Little, R.: Human-Ecosystem Interactions in Large Ensemble-Models. In: Smajgl, A., Barreteau, O. (eds.) Empirical Agent-based Modelling - Challenges and Solutions: Volume 1, The Characterisation and Parameterisation of Empirical Agent-based Models, vol. 1. Springer, New York (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Hirsch Hadorn, G., Bradley, D., Pohl, C., Rist, S., Wiesmann, U.: Implications of transdisciplinarity for sustainability research. Ecological Economics 60(1), 119–128 (2006). doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.12.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Janssen, M., Ostrom, E.. Empirically Based, Agent-based models. Ecology and Society, 11(2) (2006). Art.37: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss32/art37/

  12. Kay, J.J., Regier, H.A., Boyle, M., Francis, G.: An ecosystem approach for sustainability: addressing the challenge of complexity 560. Futures 31, 721–742 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Lang, D., Wiek, A., Bergmann, M., Stauffacher, M., Martens, P., Moll, P., Thomas, C.: Transdisciplinary research in sustainability science: practice, principles, and challenges. Sustainability Science 7, 25–43 (2012). doi:10.1007/s11625-011-0149-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Moss, S.: Alternative Approaches to the Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11(1), 5 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  15. O’Connor, M., Faucheux, S., Froger, G., Funtowicz, S.O., Munda, G., Costanza, R., Martinez-Alier, J.: Emergent complexity and procedural rationality: post-normal science for sustainability 761 Getting Down to Earth: Practical Applications of Ecological Economics. Island Press, Washington D.C. (1996)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Pahl-Wostl, C.: The implications of complexity for integrated resources management. Environmental Modelling and Software 22(5), 561–569 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Perez, L., Dragicevic, S.: Modeling mountain pine beetle infestation with an agent-based approach at two spatial scales. Environmental Modelling & Software 25(2), 223–236 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Pregernig, M.: Transdisciplinarity viewed from afar: science-policy assessments as forums for the creation of transdisciplinary knowledge. Science and Public Policy 33(6), 445–455 (2006). doi:10.3152/147154306781778867

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Reaney, S.M.: The use of agent based modelling techniques in hydrology: determining the spatial and temporal origin of channel flow in semi-arid catchments. Earth surface processes and landforms. 33(2), 317–327 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Smajgl, A.: Challenging beliefs through multi-level participatory modelling in Indonesia. Environmental Modelling and Software 25(11), 1470–1476 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Smajgl, A., Bohensky, E.: Behaviour And Space In Agent-Based Modelling: Poverty Patterns In East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Environmental Modelling and Software 45, 8–14 (2013). doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.10.014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Smajgl, A., Carlin, G. D.: Simulating impacts of energy prices on poverty in east kalimantan, indonesia. Paper Presented at the Combined IMACS World Congress/Modelling and Simulation Society-of-Australia-and-New-Zealand (MSSANZ)/18th Biennial Conference on Modelling and Simulation Cairns (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Smajgl, A., Egan, S., Kirby, M., Mainuddin, M., Ward, J., Kroon, F.: The Mekong region simulation (Mersim) model - Design Document Townsville: CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Smajgl, A., Foran, T., Dore, J., Ward, J., Larson, S.: Visions, beliefs and transformation: Exploring cross-sector and trans-boundary dynamics in the wider Mekong region. Ecology and Society (in print)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Smajgl, A., House, A., Butler, J.: Implications of ecological data constraints for integrated policy and livelihoods modelling: an example from East Kalimantan. Indonesia Ecological Modelling 222, 888–896 (2011). doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.11.015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Smajgl, A., Prananingtyas, S. D.: Adaptation dynamics shaped by multiple tiers of governance: climate change and deforestation in indonesia. Paper Presented at the Combined IMACS World Congress/Modelling and Simulation Society-of-Australia-and-New-Zealand (MSSANZ)/18th Biennial Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Cairns (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  27. Smajgl, A., Ward, J.: A framework for bridging Science and Decision making. Futures 52(8), 52–58 (2013). doi:http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.futures.2013.07.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Smajgl, A., Ward, J.: A design protocol for research impact evaluation: Development investments of the Mekong region. Journal of Environmental Management, Evaluating participatory research: Framework, methods and implementation results (in print)

    Google Scholar 

  29. Smajgl, A., Ward, J., Egan, S.: Designing a simulation-supported learning process for decision makers in the mekong region. Paper Presented at the ModSim 2013, Adelaide (2013a)

    Google Scholar 

  30. Smajgl, A., Ward, J., Egan, S.: Validating simulations of development outcomes in the mekong region. Paper Presented at the ModSim 2013, Adelaide (2013b)

    Google Scholar 

  31. Voinov, A., Bousquet, F.: Modelling with stakeholders. Environmental Modelling and Software 25(11), 1168–1281 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Wuelser, G., Pohl, C., Hirsch Hadorn, G.: Structuring complexity for tailoring research contributions to sustainable development: a framework. Sustainability Science 7(1), 81–93 (2012). doi:10.1007/s11625-011-0143-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alex Smajgl .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this paper

Cite this paper

Smajgl, A. (2015). Simulating Sustainability: Guiding Principles to Ensure Policy Impact. In: Demazeau, Y., Decker, K., Bajo Pérez, J., de la Prieta, F. (eds) Advances in Practical Applications of Agents, Multi-Agent Systems, and Sustainability: The PAAMS Collection. PAAMS 2015. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 9086. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-18944-4_1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-18944-4_1

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-18943-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-18944-4

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics