Abstract
We describe a decision support system for hypothesis assessment in which exploration is supported by computational creativity. A software tool for morphological hypothesis analysis and evidence handling is extended with a creative assistant that on demand suggests hypotheses that the analyst should consider. Suggested hypotheses are chosen so that they are far from hypotheses that the analyst previously has paid attention to but nevertheless are supported by evidence in an interesting way. For the purpose of providing thought-provoking suggestions, the creative assistant employs ensembles of novelty and value assessment methods and proposes hypotheses that stand out in this multi-ensemble analysis. Preliminary experiments investigate the system’s potential for infusing novel and valid ideas into the decision making process.
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Notes
- 1.
Note that “morphological analysis” has different meanings in decision support and linguistics. In this paper we use the term only in the former meaning.
- 2.
We suffer from a terminology collision regarding the term value between the fields of morphological analysis and computational creativity. Where the distinction is not obvious from the context a cell in the morphological chart is referred to as value cell whereas usefulness is called value charge.
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Acknowledgments
Christian Mårtensson suggested that we should consider how to apply computational creativity in morphological analysis. We thank Tove Gustavi, Maja Karasalo and Christian Mårtensson for making the MHMA tool available for our research. This research is commissioned by FMV, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration.
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Forsgren, R., Hammar, P., Jändel, M. (2016). Computational Creativity for Intelligence Analysis. In: Kunifuji, S., Papadopoulos, G., Skulimowski, A., Kacprzyk , J. (eds) Knowledge, Information and Creativity Support Systems. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 416. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27478-2_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27478-2_6
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