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Advanced Computational Methods for Knowledge Engineering pp 195–212Cite as

Using Local Weather and Geographical Information to Predict Cholera Outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam

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Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 453))

Abstract

In 2007, repeated outbreaks of cholera in Hanoi have raised the need to have up-to-date evidence on the impact of factors on cholera epidemic, which is essential for developing an early warning system. We have successfully built models to predict cholera outbreaks in Hanoi from 2001 to 2012 using Random Forests method. We found that geographical factors—the number of cholera cases of a district of interest and its neighbours—are very important to predict accurately cholera cases besides the weather factors. Among weather factors, temperature and relative humidity are the most important. We also found that prediction accuracy of our models, measured in adjusted coefficient of determination, will decrease by 0.0076 if prediction length increases by one day.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Assoc. Prof. Nguyen Ha Nam from VNU University of Engineering and Technology for his discussions and recommendations during experiments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Information Technology, VNUH University of Engineering and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam

    Nguyen Hai Chau

  2. Information Technology Department, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam

    Le Thi Ngoc Anh

Authors
  1. Nguyen Hai Chau
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  2. Le Thi Ngoc Anh
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nguyen Hai Chau .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    Thanh Binh Nguyen

  2. Department of Networked Systems and Services, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary

    Tien van Do

  3. Laboratory of Theoretical and Applied Computer Science (LITA), UFR MIM, University of Lorraine, Ile du Saulcy, Metz, France

    Hoai An Le Thi

  4. Institute of Informatics, Wrocław University of Technology, Wrocław, Poland

    Ngoc Thanh Nguyen

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© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

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Chau, N.H., Ngoc Anh, L.T. (2016). Using Local Weather and Geographical Information to Predict Cholera Outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam. In: Nguyen, T.B., van Do, T., An Le Thi, H., Nguyen, N.T. (eds) Advanced Computational Methods for Knowledge Engineering. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 453. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-38884-7_15

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-38884-7_15

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-38883-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-38884-7

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