Abstract
Many simulation models just model stylised facts, and as such they are interesting and often helpful. But simulation models can be seen as an implementation of theory in a computer, and this is why at least an empirical validation should be aimed at. And if a simulation model is to be validated in a concrete empirical setting, it should be initialised with empirical data in order that one can test whether the model behaves the same way as the target system. The paper discusses two models, their empirical background and validation results, distinguishing between retrospective/predictive validity and structural validity.
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Notes
- 1.
A preliminary analysis of 213 papers in the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS) since 2011 showed that at most 19.2 % compare their quantitative simulation results to quantitative empirical data. Another 17.4 % discuss the necessity and/or possibilities of such a comparison but do not perform it, usually for lack of a sufficient dataset. A more detailed analysis of JASSS papers with respect to the issue of quantitative validation is under preparation.
- 2.
An animated version of this figure which shows this distribution for each year can be downloaded from http://userpages.uni-koblenz.de/~kgt/GR/CalValSim.ppsx, slide 12; this file also contains all the other figures of this paper in colour and high resolution.
- 3.
It can be found at http://www.gloders.eu/components/com_jwiki/mediawiki/images/d/d5/NOERS.zip.
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Acknowledgements
The research leading to the results of Sect. 2.1 received funding from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft between 1991 and 1995 under grant agreement no. KR 960/5-1 and -2 (‘Einführung und Auswirkung der Koedukation. Eine Untersuchung an ausgewählten Gymnasien des Landes Rheinland-Pfalz’/‘The introduction of co-education. A study of educational history at selected grammar schools in the German State of Rhineland-Palatinate’).
The research leading to the results of Sect. 2.2 has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) since 2012 under grant agreement no. 315874 (http://www.gloders.eu, ‘Global dynamics of extortion racket systems’).
Comments of two anonymous reviewers are gratefully appreciated.
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Troitzsch, K.G. (2017). Using Empirical Data for Designing, Calibrating and Validating Simulation Models. In: Jager, W., Verbrugge, R., Flache, A., de Roo, G., Hoogduin, L., Hemelrijk, C. (eds) Advances in Social Simulation 2015. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 528. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47253-9_38
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