Abstract
De Finetti’s approach of an event of two levels of knowledge was recently proposed as the model of reference for psychology studies. We show that de Finetti’s qualitative probability framework seems to be “natural” to children aged from 3 to 4 as well as to account for children’s heuristic approach to probabilistic reasoning.
Keywords
D. Petturiti—Partially supported by the INdAM-GNAMPA Project 2016 U2016/000391, the Italian Ministry of Health grant J52I14001640001, and the trilateral DFG-FMSH-Villa Vigoni Project “Human Rationality: Probabilistic Points of View”.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Baratgin J., Douven I., Evans, J.St.B.T., Oaksford, M., Over, D., Polytzer, G.: The new paradigm and mental models. Trends Cogn. Sci. 19, 547–548 (2015)
Baratgin, J., Over, D.E., Politzer, G.: New psychological paradigm for conditionals and general de Finetti tables. Ind. Lang. 29, 73–84 (2014)
Baratgin, J., Politzer, G.: Logic, probability and inference: a methodology for a new paradigm. In: Macchi, L., et al. (eds.) Cognitive Unconscious and Human Rationality, pp. 119–142. MIT Press, Cambridge (2016)
Coletti, G.: Coherent qualitative probability. J. Math. Psych. 34, 297–310 (1990)
Coletti, G., Scozzafava, R.: From conditional events to conditional measures: a new axiomatic approach. Ann. Math. Artif. Intell. 32, 373–392 (2001)
Coletti, G., Vantaggi, B.: Representability of ordinal relations on a set of conditional events. Theory Decis. 60, 137–174 (2006)
de Finetti, B.: Sul significato soggettivo della probabilità. Fund. Mat. 17, 293–329 (1931)
de Finetti, B.: Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources (1937). Translated in Kyburg, H.E., Smokler, H.E. (eds.) Studies in Subjective Probability, pp. 55–118. Wiley (1964)
Huber, B.L., Huber, O.: Development of the concept of comparative subjective probability. J. Exp. Child Psych. 44, 304–316 (1987)
Kraft, C.H., Pratt, J.W., Seidenberg, A.: Intuitive probability on finite sets. Ann. Math. Stat. 30, 408–419 (1959)
Koopman, B.O.: The axioms and algebra of intuitive probability. Ann. Math. 41, 269–292 (1940)
Over, D.E., Baratgin, J.: The ‘defective’ truth table: its past, present, and future. In: Lucas, E., et al. (eds.) The Thinking Mind: The use of Thinking in Everyday Life. Psychology Press, Alberton (2016)
Scott, D.: Measurement structures and linear inequalities. J. Math. Psych. 1, 233–247 (1964)
Wong, S.K.M., Yao, Y.Y., Bollmann, P., Burger, H.C.: Axiomatization of qualitative belief structure. IEEE Trans. Sys. Man Cyb. 21, 726–734 (1991)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Baratgin, J., Coletti, G., Jamet, F., Petturiti, D. (2017). Experimental Evaluation of the Understanding of Qualitative Probability and Probabilistic Reasoning in Young Children. In: Benferhat, S., Tabia, K., Ali, M. (eds) Advances in Artificial Intelligence: From Theory to Practice. IEA/AIE 2017. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 10351. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60045-1_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60045-1_13
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-60044-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-60045-1
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)