Abstract
This study aims to demonstrate the utility of System dynamics (SD) thinking and data mining techniques as a policy analysis method to help Singapore achieve its greenhouse gases (GHG) emission target as part of the Paris climate agreement. We have developed a system dynamics model called Singapore electric vehicle and transportation (SET) and analyzed the long-term impacts of various emission reduction strategies. Data mining techniques were integrated into SD modelling, to create a more evidence-based decision-making framework as opposed to the prevalent intuitive modelling approach and ad hoc estimation of variables. In this study, data mining was utilized to aid in parameter fitting as well as the formulation of the model.We discovered that the current policies put in place to encourage electric vehicle (EV) adoption are insufficient for Singapore to electrify 50% of its vehicle population by the year 2050. Despite not achieving the electric vehicle target, the projected CO2 emission still manages to be significantly lower than the year 2005 business as usual scenario, mainly because of switching to a cleaner fossil fuel for power generation as well as curbing the growth of vehicle population through the Certificate of Entitlement (COE). The results highlighted the usefulness of SD modelling not just in policy analysis, but also helping stakeholders to better understand the dynamics complexity of a system.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Gil, A., Benigno, R., Matsuura, M., Monzon, C.M., Samothrakis, I.: The use of system dynamics analysis and modeling techniques to explore policy levers in the fight against Middle Eastern terrorist groups. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California (2005)
Bass, F.M.: A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables. Management Science 15(5), 215–227 (1969). doi:10.1287/mnsc.15.5.215
Brady, J., O’Mahony, M.: Travel to work in Dublin. The potential impacts of electric vehicles on climate change and urban air quality. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 16(2), 188–193 (2011). doi:10.1016/j.trd.2010.09.006
Cao, J., Mokhtarian, P. L.: The future demand for alternative fuel passenger vehicles: A diffusion of innovation approach (2004)
Chaerul, M., Tanaka, M., Shekdar, A.V.: A system dynamics approach for hospital waste management. Waste Management 28(2), 442–449 (2008). doi:10.1016/j.wasman.2007.01.007
Chandrasekaran, D., Tellis, G. J.: A Critical Review of Marketing Research on Diffusion of New Products. Review of Marketing Research, 39–80 (2007). doi: 10.1108/s1548-6435(2007)0000003006
Chandrasekaran, D., Tellis, G.J.: Diffusion of Innovation. Wiley International Encyclopedia of Marketing (2010). doi:10.1002/9781444316568.wiem05015
Chia, E.S., Lim, C.K., Ng, A., Nguyen, N.H.: The System Dynamics of Nuclear Energy in Singapore. International Journal of Green Energy 12(1), 73–86 (2014). doi:10.1080/15435075.2014.889001
Dawar, V., Lesieutre, B. C., Argonne, T. P.: Impact of Electric Vehicles on energy market. In:2011 IEEE Power and Energy Conference at Illinois (2011). doi:10.1109/peci.2011.5740487
Garrett, V., Koontz, T.M.: Breaking the cycle: Producer and consumer perspectives on the non-adoption of passive solar housing in the US. Energy Policy 36(4), 1551–1566 (2008). doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.01.002
Giannis, A., Chen, M., Yin, K., Tong, H., Veksha, A.: Application of system dynamics modeling for evaluation of different recycling scenarios in Singapore. Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management (2016). doi:10.1007/s10163-016-0503-2
Ilonen, J:. Predicting diffusion of innovation with self-organisation and machine learning (2013)
Marks, J.: Singapore aims for 50% electric vehicles by 2050 | Inhabitat - Green Design, Innovation, Architecture, Green Building, August 7 (2016). retrieved from http://inhabitat.com/singapore-aims-for-50-electric-vehicles-by-2050
Krishnan,T.V., Bass, F.M., Jain, D.C.: Optimal Pricing Strategy for New Products.Management Science 45(12), 1650–1663 (1999). doi:10.1287/mnsc.45.12.1650
Lamberson,, P.J.: The diffusion of hybrid electric vehicles. Future research directions in sustainable mobility and accessibility. In Sustainable mobility accessibility research and transformation (SMART) at the University of Michigan center for advancing research and solutions for society (CARSS) (2008)
Mahajan, V., Muller, E., Bass, F.M.: New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research. Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior, 125-177. (1991). doi:10.1007/978-3-662-02700-4_6
Massiani, J: The Use of Stated Preferences to Forecast Alternative Fuel Vehicles Market Diffusion: Comparisons with Other Methods and Proposal for a Synthetic Utility Function SSRN Electronic Journal (2013). doi:10.2139/ssrn.2275756
Massiani, J., Gohs, A.: The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies. Research in Transportation Economics 50, 17–28 (2015). 10.1016/j.retrec.2015.06.003
NCCS. National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS) - Climate Change and Singapore: Challenges. Opportunities. Partnerships (2012). retrieved from https://www.nccs.gov.sg/nccs-2012/sectoral-measures-to-reduce-emissions-up-to-2020.html
Ng, A.T., Sy, C., Jie, Li.: A system dynamics model of Singapore healthcare affordability. In: Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) (2011). doi:10.1109/wsc.2011.6147853
Kuttan, S.C.: Level the playing field for adopters of electric vehicles in Singapore, Asia One Singapore News, August 2 (2016). retrieved from http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/level-playing-field-adopters-electric-vehicles-singapore
Singapore. Energy Market Authority: Singapore energy statistics: Energising our nation. Research and Statistics Unit, Energy Market Authority, Singapore (2011)
Singapore’s Submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). (n.d.). retrieved from https://www.mfa.gov.sg/content/mfa/overseasmission/geneva/press_statements_speeches/2015/201507/press_20150703.html
Sterman, J.D.: Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston (2000)
Xi, X., Poh, K.L.: A Novel Integrated Decision Support Tool for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Singapore: Synergies Between System Dynamics and Analytic Hierarchy Process. Water Resources Management 29(4), 1329–1350 (2014). doi:10.1007/s11269-014-0876-8
Zhuang, Y., Zhang, Q.: Evaluating Municipal Water Management Options with the Incorporation of Water Quality and Energy Consumption. Water Resources Management 29(1), 35–61 (2014). doi:10.1007/s11269-014-0825-6
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Zhang, B., Tay, F.E.H. (2017). An Integrated Approach Using Data Mining and System Dynamics to Policy Design: Effects of Electric Vehicle Adoption on CO2 Emissions in Singapore. In: Perner, P. (eds) Advances in Data Mining. Applications and Theoretical Aspects. ICDM 2017. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 10357. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62701-4_20
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62701-4_20
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-62700-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-62701-4
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)