Abstract
After the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, a great attempt has been placed on studying of early warning indicators (EWIs) in order to forecast possible future crises. EWIs have played a crucial role not only in explaining which macroprudential policies should be involved and put into effect, but also indicating when it is an appropriate timing for implementation of the policies. Accurate prediction of EWIs therefore has become a big issue. The paper aims to forecast a credit-to-GDP gap, by using three different models: linear, Markov switching, quantile models with some selected macroeconomic variables; set index, exchange rate and export. The empirical results show that the quantile 25th model performs the most accurate forecasting ability based on RMSE and MAPE. Furthermore, the forecast results indicates that there is a slight downturn of the predicted values during 2006 to 2007.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Alessi, L., Detken, C.: ‘Real time’ early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity (2009). ECB Working Paper No. 1039
Drehmann, M., Tsatsaronis, K.: The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers. Bank for International Settlements (BIS), it publishes Quarterly Reviews (2014)
Edge, R.M., Meisenzahl, R.R.: The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: implications for countercyclical capital buffers. Int. J. Cent. Bank. 7(4), 261–298 (2011)
Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S., Reinhart, C.M.: Leading indicators of currency crises. Staff Pap. 45(1), 1–48 (1998)
Mackenzie, K.: Chinas credit-to-GDP ratio, updated (and why it matters), 17 April 2013. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/17/1463992/chinas-credit-to-gdp-ratio-updated-and-why-it-matters/
Panizza, U., Presbitero, A.F.: Public debt and economic growth: is there a causal effect? J. Macroecon. 41, 21–41 (2014)
Randveer, M., Kulu, L., Uuskla, L.: The impact of private debt on economic growth. Working Paper Series, No. 20, Eesti Pank (2011). Bank of Estonia Eesti Pank
Sarma, M.: Index of Financial Inclusion. Indian Council for Research on International Economics Relations, New Delhi (2008)
Schaller, H., Norden, S.V.: Regime switching in stock market returns. Appl. Finan. Econ. 7(2), 177–191 (1997)
Timmermann, A.: Moments of Markov switching models. J. Econ. 96(1), 75–111 (2000)
Yuan, C.: Forecasting exchange rates: the multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing. Int. Rev. Econ. Finan. 20(2), 342–362 (2011)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Navapan, K., Liu, J., Sriboonchitta, S. (2018). Forecasting Credit-to-GDP. In: Anh, L., Dong, L., Kreinovich, V., Thach, N. (eds) Econometrics for Financial Applications. ECONVN 2018. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 760. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73150-6_43
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73150-6_43
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-73149-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-73150-6
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)