Abstract
Long-term projections for commodity prices are a key challenge in science as well as in business environment. This paper proposes a new mathematical approach for future projections of prices for time horizons larger than 10 years using a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). The DBN approach is verified at the crude oil price example.
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Schwarz, T., Lenz, HJ., Dominik, W. (2018). Long-Term Projections for Commodity Prices—The Crude Oil Price Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks. In: Kliewer, N., Ehmke, J., Borndörfer, R. (eds) Operations Research Proceedings 2017. Operations Research Proceedings. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-89920-6_12
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-89920-6_12
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Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
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Online ISBN: 978-3-319-89920-6
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