Abstract
In this paper, we created a conceptual model UML (unified modelling language) showing interactions between animals, mosquitoes, environment, and climate factors. The UML static model was used to build an agent-based model that helps to study the impact of rainfall variability on the number of infected hosts after the outbreak of Rift valley fever. Several simulations were done on the multi-agent CORMAS platform. The different results showed continued growth in infections during the rainy season. A sensitivity analysis taking into account the delayed rains and dry spells have allowed us to know a clear vision about the rate of infected animals due to the rainfall variability. This work defines a framework for studying the impact of climatic changes on vector-borne diseases.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Fontenille, D., Traore-Lamizana, M., Diallo, M., Thonnon, J., Digoutte, J.P., Zeller, H.G.: New vectors of Rift Valley Fever in West Africa. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 4(2), 289–93 (1998)
Traore-Lamizana, M., Zeller, H.G., et al.: Isolations of West Nile and Bagaza viruses from mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in central Senegal (Ferlo). J. Med. Entomol. 31(6), 934–8 (1994)
Ndione, J.-A., Diop, M., Lacaux, J.-P., Gaye, A.T.: Variabilité intra-saisonnière de la pluviométrie et émergence de la fièvre de la vallée du rift (FVR) dans la vallée du fleuve Sénégal: nouvelles considérations. Climatologie 5, 83–97 (2008)
Linthicum, K.J., Assaf, A., Compton, J.T., Kelley, P.W., Myers, M.F., Peters, C.J.: Climate and satellite indicators to forecast Rift Valley Fever epidemics in Kenya. Science 285, 397–400 (1999)
Mondet, B., Diaite, A., Fall, A.G., Chevalier, V.: Relations entre la pluviométrie et le risque de transmission virale par les moustiques: cas du virus de la Rift Valley Fever (RVF) dans le Ferlo (Senegal). Environnement, Risques et Santé 4, 125–129 (2005)
Ndione, J.A., Lacaux, J.P., Toure, Y., Vignolles, C., Fontanaz, D., Lafaye, M.: Mares temporaires et risques sanitaires au Ferlo: contribution de la teledetection pour l’étude de la fievre de la vallee du rift entre août 2003 et janvier 2004. Secheresse 20(1), 153–160 (2009)
Colwell, R.R.: Global climate and infectious disease: the cholera paradigm. Science 274(5295), 2025–2031 (1996)
Colwell, R.R., Patz, J.A.: Climate, Infectious Disease and Health. American Academy of Microbiology, Washington, DC (1998)
Ndione, J.-A., Besancenot, J.-P., Lacaux, J.-P., Sabatier, Ph.: Environnement et épidémiologie de la fievre de la vallee du Rift (FVR) dans le bassin inferieur du fleuve Senegal. Environnement, Risques et Sante 2, 1–7 (2003)
McMichael, A., Woodruff, R., Hales, S.: Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet 367, 859 (2006)
Koenraadt, C.J.M., Githeko, A.K., Takken, W.: The effects of rainfall and evapotranspiration on the temporal dynamics of Anopheles gambiae s.s. and Anopheles arabiensis in a Kenyan village. Acta Trop 90, 141–153 (2004)
Calabretto, J-P., Couper, D., Mulley, B., Nissen, M., Siow, S., Tuck, J.: Agent support for patients and community pharmacists. In: Proceedings of the 35th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS- 35.02), p. 153b, January 2002
Riano, D., Prado, S., Pascual, A., Martin, S.: A multi-agent system model to support palliative care units. In: Proceedings of the 15th IEEE Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems (CBMS 2002), p. 35, June 2002
Triola, M.M., Holzman, R.S.: Agent-based simulation of nosocomial transmission in the medical intensive care unit. In: Proceedings of the 16th IEEE Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems (CBMS 2003), p. 284, June 2003
Paul, P.N.T., Bah, A., Ndiaye, P.I., Ndione, J.A.: An agent-based model for studying the impact of herd mobility on the spread of vector-borne diseases: the case of Rift Valley Fever (Ferlo Senegal). Open J. Model. Simul. 2, 97–111 (2014)
Sow, A., Faye, O., Ba, Y., Diallo, D., Fall, G., Faye, O., et al.: Widespread Rift Valley Fever emergence in Senegal in 2013–2014. Open Forum Infect. Dis. 3(3) (2016). https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofw149PMCID. ofw149. Published online 21 July 2016. PMC5047427
Himeidan, Y.E., Kweka, E.J., Mahgoub, M.M., El Rayah, E.A., et al.: Recent outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever in East Africa and the Middle East. Front. Public Health 2, 169 (2014)
Lacaux, J.P., Tourre, Y.M., Vignolles, C., Ndione, J.A., Lafaye, M.: Classification of ponds from high-spatial resolution remote sensing: application to Rift Valley Fever epidemics in Senegal. Remote Sens. Environ. 106, 66–74 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2006.07.012
Bousquet, F., Bakam, I., Proton, H., Le Page, C.: Cormas: common-pool resources and multi-agent systems. In: Pasqual del Pobil, A., Mira, J., Ali, M. (eds.) IEA/AIE 1998. LNCS, vol. 1416, pp. 826–837. Springer, Heidelberg (1998). https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-64574-8_469
Koenraadt, C.J., Paaijmans, K.P., Githeko, A.K., Knols, B.G., Takken, W.: Egg hatching, larval movement and larval survival of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae in desiccating habitats. Malar. J. 2, 20 (2003)
http://healthstaff.blogspot.com/p/life-cycle-of-aedes-mosquito.html
Bop, M., Amadou, A., Seidou, O., Kébé, C.M.F., Ndione, J.A., Sambou, S., Sanda, I.S.: Modeling the hydrological dynamic of the breeding water bodies in Barkedji’s zone. J. Water Resour. Prot. 6, 741–755 (2014)
Porphyre, T., Bicout, D.J., Sabatier, P.: Modelling the abundance of mosquito vectors versus flooding dynamic. Ecol. Model. 183, 173–181 (2005)
Ndione, J.-A., Besancenot, J.-P., Lacaux, J.-P., Sabatier, Ph.: Environnement et épidémiologie de la fiàvre de la vallée du Rift (FVR) dans le bassin inférieur du fleuve Sénégal. Environnement, Risques et Santé 2, 1–7 (2003)
Ba, Y., Diallo, D., Fadel Kebe, C.M., Dia, I., Diallo, M.: Aspects of bioecology of two Rift Valley Fever virus vectors in Senegal (West Africa): Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes (Diptera: Culicidae. J. Med. Entomol. 42(5), 739–750 (2005)
Davies, F.G., Linthicum, K.J., James, A.D.: Rainfall and epizootic Rift Valley Fever. Bull. World Health Organ. 63(5), 941–3 (1985)
Anyamba, A., Linthicum, K.J., Tucker, C.J.: Climate-disease connections: Rift Valley Fever in Kenya. Cad Saude Publica 17(Suppl), 133–140 (2001)
Martin, V., Chevalier, V., Ceccato, P., Anyamba, A., De Simone, L., Lubroth, J., de La Rocque, S., Domenech, J.: The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley Fever. Rev. Sci. Tech. 27(2), 413–26 (2008)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
About this paper
Cite this paper
Paul, P.N.T., Bah, A., Ndiaye, P.I., Ndione, J.A. (2018). An Agent Based Model for Studying the Impact of Rainfall on Rift Valley Fever Transmission at Ferlo (Senegal). In: Gervasi, O., et al. Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2018. ICCSA 2018. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 10961. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-95165-2_20
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-95165-2_20
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-95164-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-95165-2
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)