Abstract
The past few decades have witnessed the booming of social networks, which leads to a lot of researches exploring information dissemination. However, owing to the insufficient information exposed before the outbreak of the cascade, many previous works fail to fully catch its characteristics, and thus usually model the burst process in a rough manner. In this paper, we employ survival theory and design a novel survival perspective Early Pattern detection model for Outbreak Cascades (in abbreviation, EPOC), which utilizes information both from the static nature and its later diffusion process. To classify the cascades, we employ two Gaussian distributions to get the optimal boundary and also provide rigorous proof to testify its rationality. Then by utilizing both the survival boundary and hazard ceiling, we can precisely detect early pattern of outbreak cascades at very early stage. Experiment results demonstrate that under three practical and special metrics, our model outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in this early-stage task.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
arnetminer.org/Influencelocality.
References
Adrien, F., Lada, A., Dean, E., Justin C.: Rumor cascades. In: ICWSM (2014)
Bai, j., Li, L., Lu, L., Yang, Y., Zeng, D.: Real-time prediction of meme burst. In: IEEE ISI (2017)
Jiang, Z., Zhou, W., Didier, S., Ryan, W., Ken, B., Peter, C.: Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005–2007 and 2008–2009 Chinese stock market bubbles. J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 74, 149–162 (2010)
Daniel, G., Ramanathan, V. Ravi, K., Jasmine, N., Andrew, T.: The predictive power of online chatter. In: SIGKDD (2005)
Ma, X., Gao, X., Chen, G.: BEEP: a Bayesian perspective early stage event prediction model for online social networks. In: ICDM (2017)
Wang, S., Yan, Z., Hu, X., Philip, S., Li, Z.: Burst time prediction in cascades. In: AAAI (2015)
Matsubara, Y., Sakurai, Y., Prakash, B., Li, L., Faloutsos C.: Rise and fall patterns of information diffusion: model and implications. In: SIGKDD (2012)
Subbian, K., Prakash, B., Adamic, L.: Detecting large reshare cascades in social networks. In: WWW (2017)
Gao, S., Ma, J., Chen, Z.: Effective and effortless features for popularity prediction in microblogging network. In: WWW (2014)
Zhao, Q., Erdogdu, M., He, H., Rajaraman, A., Leskovec, J.: SEISMIC: a self-exciting point process model for predicting tweet popularity. In: SIGKDD (2015)
Gao, S., Ma, J., Chen, Z.: Modeling and predicting retweeting dynamics on microblogging platforms. In: WSDM (2015)
Liu, W., Deng, Z, Gong, X., Jiang, F., Tsang, I.: Effectively predicting whether and when a topic will become prevalent in a social network. In: AAAI (2015)
Cheng, J., Adamic, L., Dow, P., Kleinberg, J., Leskovec, J.: Can cascades be predicted? In: WWW (2014)
Cox, R.: Regression models and life-tables. In: Kotz, S., Johnson, N.L. (eds.) Breakthroughs in Statistics, pp. 527–541. Springer, New York (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-4380-9_37
Aalen, O., Borgan, O., Gjessing, H.: Survival and Event History Analysis. Springer, Heidelberg (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-68560-1
Anderson, J.R., Bernstein, L., Pike, M.C.: Approximate confidence intervals for probabilities of survival and quantiles in life-table analysis. Int. Biom. Soc. JSTOR 38(2), 407–416 (1982)
Cui, P., Jin, S., Yu, L., Wang, F., Zhu, W., Yang, S.: Cascading outbreak prediction in networks: a data-driven approach. In: SIGKDD (2013)
Iwata, T., Shah, A., Ghahramani, Z.: Discovering latent influence in online social activities via shared cascade poisson processes. In: SIGKDD (2013)
Mansour, E., Tekli, G., Arnould, P., Chbeir, R., Cardinale, Y.: F-SED: feature-centric social event detection. In: Benslimane, D., Damiani, E., Grosky, W.I., Hameurlain, A., Sheth, A., Wagner, R.R. (eds.) DEXA 2017. LNCS, vol. 10439, pp. 409–426. Springer, Cham (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64471-4_33
Hong, L., Dan, O., Davison, B.: Predicting popular messages in Twitter. In: WWW (2011)
Feng, Z., Li, Y., Jin, L., Feng, L.: A cluster-based epidemic model for retweeting trend prediction on micro-blog. In: Chen, Q., Hameurlain, A., Toumani, F., Wagner, R., Decker, H. (eds.) DEXA 2015. LNCS, vol. 9261, pp. 558–573. Springer, Cham (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-22849-5_39
Petrovic, S., Osborne, M., Lavrenko, V.: RT to Win! Predicting message propagation in Twitter. In: ICWSM (2011)
Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the Program of International S&T Cooperation (2016YFE0100300), the China 973 project (2014CB340303), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61472252, 61672353), the Shanghai Science and Technology Fund (17510740200), and CCF-Tencent Open Research Fund (RAGR20170114).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Yang, C., Wu, Q., Gao, X., Chen, G. (2018). EPOC: A Survival Perspective Early Pattern Detection Model for Outbreak Cascades. In: Hartmann, S., Ma, H., Hameurlain, A., Pernul, G., Wagner, R. (eds) Database and Expert Systems Applications. DEXA 2018. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 11029. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98809-2_21
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98809-2_21
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-98808-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-98809-2
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)