Abstract
To establish its clinical value, a probabilistic network is typically subjected to an evaluation study using real patient data from the field of application. The results of such a study are often summarised in the percentage of correctly predicted outcomes. In this paper, we propose the use of a forecasting score as an alternative way of expressing the clinical value of a network. Such a score takes not just the predicted outcome into consideration but also the associated distribution of uncertainty. We illustrate the use and interpretation of the Brier forecasting score for a real-life probabilistic network in oncology.
This research is (partly) supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO).
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References
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© 2003 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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van der Gaag, L.C., Renooij, S. (2003). Probabilistic Networks as Probabilistic Forecasters. In: Dojat, M., Keravnou, E.T., Barahona, P. (eds) Artificial Intelligence in Medicine. AIME 2003. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 2780. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-39907-0_40
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-39907-0_40
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-20129-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-39907-0
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