Abstract
In this article, chance discovery method is applied to estimate chain reaction bankruptcy structure. Risk of default can be better forecasted by taking chain reaction effect into accont. Time order method and directed KeyGraph are newly introduced to distinguish and express the time order among defaults that is essential information for the analysis of chain reaction bankruptcy. The steps for the data analysis are introduced and result of example analysis with default data in Kyushu, Japan, 2005 is presented.
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Goda, S., Ohsawa, Y. (2008). Chance Discovery in Credit Risk Management. In: Satoh, K., Inokuchi, A., Nagao, K., Kawamura, T. (eds) New Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence. JSAI 2007. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 4914. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78197-4_23
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78197-4_23
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