Skip to main content

Prediction of Web Goodput Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Models

  • Conference paper

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 6097))

Abstract

The performance prediction is a key part of the modern network traffic engineering. In this paper we present the application of nonlinear autoregressive modeling to the prediction of goodput level in web transactions. We propose the two-stage approach, with clustering step on historical data, prior to classification, to determine the most appropriate traffic intensity levels. Our study is based on the data collected by the MWING system, an ensemble of web performance measurement agents, and cover over a year of continuous observations of a group of HTTP servers.

This work was partially supported by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education under Grant No. N516 032 31/3359 (2006—2009).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Abry, P., Baraniuk, R., Flandrin, P., Riedi, R., Veitch, D.: The multiscale nature of network traffic: Discovery, analysis, and modelling. IEEE Signal Processing Magazine 19(3), 28–46 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Baccelli, F., McDonald, D.R.: A stochastic model for the throughput of non-persistent TCP flows. Performance Evaluation 65(6–7), 512–530 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Borzemski, L., Cichocki, Ł., Kliber, M.: Architecture of Multiagent Internet Measurement System MWING Release 2. In: Håkansson, A., Nguyen, N.T., Hartung, R.L., Howlett, R.J., Jain, L.C. (eds.) KES-AMSTA 2009. LNCS, vol. 5559, pp. 410–419. Springer, Heidelberg (2009)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  4. Box, G., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C.: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 3rd edn. Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River (1994)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  5. Brock, W.A., Dechert, W.D., Scheinkman, J.A., LeBaron, B.: A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension. Econometric Reviews 15(3), 197–235 (1996)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  6. Drwal, M., Borzemski, L.: Statistical Analysis of Active Web Performance Measurements. In: 6th Working Conference HET-NETs 2010, pp. 247–258 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., Friedman, J.: The Elements of Statistical Learning Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, 2nd edn. Springer, Heidelberg (2009)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  8. He, Q., Dovrolis, C., Ammar, M.: On the Predictability of Large Transfer TCP Throughput. Computer Networks 51(14), 3959–3977 (2007)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  9. Keribin, C.: Consistent estimate of the order of mixture models. Comptes Rendus de l’Academie des Sciences Series I Mathematics 326(2), 243–248 (1998)

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Kim, H., Claffy, K.C., Fomenkov, M., Barman, D., Faloutsos, M., Lee, K.Y.: Internet Traffic Classification Demystified: Myths, Caveats, and the Best Practices. In: ACM CoNEXT conference, article no. 11. ACM, New York (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Liu, Z., Almhana, J., Choulakian, V., McGorman, R.: Online EM Algorithm for Mixture with Application to Internet Traffic Modeling. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 50(4), 1052–1071 (2006)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  12. McLachlan, G.J., Krishnan, T.: The EM Algorithm and Extensions. John Wiley & Sons Inc., Chichester (1997)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  13. Mirza, M., Sommers, J., Barford, P., Zhu, X.: A machine Learning Approach to TCP Throughput Prediction. In: ACM SIGMETRICS 2007 Conference, pp. 97–108 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Park, K., Willinger, W.: Self-similar Network Traffic and Performance Evaluation, 1st edn. Wiley-Interscience, New York (2000)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  15. Peterson, L., Bavier, A., Fiuczynski, M., Muir, S.: Experiences Building PlanetLab. In: 7th symposium on Operating systems design and implementation OSDI 2006, pp. 351–366 (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Sang, A., Li, S.-q.: A predictability analysis of network traffic. Computer Networks 39, 329–345 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Drwal, M., Borzemski, L. (2010). Prediction of Web Goodput Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Models. In: García-Pedrajas, N., Herrera, F., Fyfe, C., Benítez, J.M., Ali, M. (eds) Trends in Applied Intelligent Systems. IEA/AIE 2010. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 6097. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13025-0_37

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13025-0_37

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-13024-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-13025-0

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics