Skip to main content

Predicting Disk Failures with HMM- and HSMM-Based Approaches

  • Conference paper

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 6171))

Abstract

Understanding and predicting disk failures are essential for both disk vendors and users to manufacture more reliable disk drives and build more reliable storage systems, in order to avoid service downtime and possible data loss. Predicting disk failure from observable disk attributes, such as those provided by the Self-Monitoring and Reporting Technology (SMART) system, has been shown to be effective. In the paper, we treat SMART data as time series, and explore the prediction power by using HMM- and HSMM-based approaches. Our experimental results show that our prediction models outperform other models that do not capture the temporal relationship among attribute values over time. Using the best single attribute, our approach can achieve a detection rate of 46% at 0% false alarm. Combining the two best attributes, our approach can achieve a detection rate of 52% at 0% false alarm.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Cole, G.: Estimating Drive reliability in Desktop Computers and consumer electronics systems. Tech. Rep., Seagate Technology Paper TP-338.1 (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Pinheiro, E., Weber, W., Barroso, L.A.: Failure Trends in a Large Disk Drive Population. In: 5th USENIX Conference on File and Storage Technologies (FAST 2007), Berkeley, CA (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Jiang, W., Hu, C., Zhou, Y., Kanevsky, A.: Are Disks the Dominant Contributor for Storage Failures? A Comprehensive Study of Storage Subsystem Failure Characteristics. ACM Transactions on Storage 4(3), Article 7 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Bairavasundaram, L.N., Goodson, G.R., Pasupathy, S., Schindler, J.: An Analysis of Latent Sector Errors in Disk Drives. SIGMETRICS Perform. Eval. Rev. 35(1), 289–300 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Hamerly, G., Elkan, C.: Bayesian Approaches to Failure Prediction for Disk Drives. In: 18th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williamstown, MA (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Murray, J.F., Hughes, G.F., Kreutz-Delgado, K.: Machine Learning Methods for Predicting Failures in Hard Drives: A Multiple-Instance Application. Journal of Machine Learning Research 6, 783–816 (2005)

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  7. Baum, L.E., Petrie, T.: Statistical Inference for Probabilistic Functions for Finite State Markov Chains. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 37, 1554–1563 (1966)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  8. Ferguson, J.D.: Variable Duration Models for Speech. In: Symposium on the Application of Hidden Markov Models to Text and Speech, Princeton, New Jersey, pp. 143–179 (1980)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Rabiner, L.: A Tutorial on Hidden Markov Models and Selected Applications in Speech Recognition. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 77(2), 257–284 (1989)

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  10. Lehmann, E.L., D’Abrera, H.J.M.: Nonparametrics: Statistical Methods Based on Ranks. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Duin, R.P.W.: The Combining Classifier: to Train or not to Train? In: 16th international conference on Pattern Recognition, Quebec City, Canada, pp. 765–770 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Vapnik, V.: Statistical Learning Theory. John Wiley, New York (1998)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  13. http://www-ai.cs.uni-dortmund.de/SOFTWARE/MYSVM

  14. Salfner, F., Malek, M.: Using Hidden Semi-Markov Models for Effective Online Failure Prediction. In: 26th IEEE Symposium on Reliable Distributed Systems (SRDS 2007), Beijing, China, pp. 161–174 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Zhao, Y., Liu, X., Gan, S., Zheng, W. (2010). Predicting Disk Failures with HMM- and HSMM-Based Approaches. In: Perner, P. (eds) Advances in Data Mining. Applications and Theoretical Aspects. ICDM 2010. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 6171. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-14400-4_30

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-14400-4_30

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-14399-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-14400-4

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics