Energy Based Limits on Computing Capacity and on Human Computing Ability

Abstract

Many forecasts and predictions have been made about the impact of the growth over time in processing capacity of computers. In this talk we introduce bounds on future processing capacity and analyze the possibilities for their realization in the long run. The analysis shows the existence of hard limits on the progress in processing capacity which in turn generates bounds on future computing capacity. The results show that it is unlikely that some of the predictions on computing capabilities will not be achieved in the long run. The capacity bounds are not based on architectural and engineering considerations, they stem from fundamental physical limitations, which generate the tight bounds. We show that the bounds will be reached much faster than expected when compared to using simple traditional forecasting methods.

Assuming that computational activities like, decision making, processing, vision, control, auditory and sensing activities of human beings require energy, the above energy based results generate upper bounds on the computational capacity (in the broadest sense) of human beings. The results are architecture independent and have direct impact on research on models of the brain and on the cognitive abilities of human beings. A byproduct of this line of research is providing some new conjectures on past and future human development.