Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
SpringerLink
Log in

One-Shot Decision Theory: A Fundamental Alternative for Decision Under Uncertainty

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Human-Centric Decision-Making Models for Social Sciences

Part of the book series: Studies in Computational Intelligence ((SCI,volume 502))

Abstract

The attempts of this paper are as follows: clarifying the fundamental differences between the one-shot decision theory which was initially proposed in the paper [16] and other decision theories under uncertainty to highlight that the one-shot decision theory is a scenario-based decision theory instead of a lottery-based one; pointing out the instinct problems in other decision theories to show that the one-shot decision theory is necessary to solve one-shot decision problems; manifesting the relation between the one-shot decision theory and the probabilistic decision methods. As regret is a common psychological experience in one-shot decision making, we propose the one-shot decision methods with regret in this paper.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Allais, M.: Le comportement de l’homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes de l’école américaine. Econometrica 21(4), 503–546 (1953)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Baillon, A.: Eliciting subjective probabilities through exchangeable events: an advantage and a limit. Decis. Anal. 5(2), 76–87 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Bell, D.E.: Risk premiums for decision regret. Manag. Sci. 29(10), 1156–1166 (1983)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Bertrand, M., Schoar, A.: Managing with style: the effect of managers on firm policies. Q. J. Econ. 118(4), 1169–1208 (2003)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  5. Bewley, T.: Knightian decision theory, part I. Decis. Econ. Finan. 25(2), 79–110 (2002)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  6. Brandstatter, E., Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R.: The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs. Psychol. Rev. 113(2), 409–432 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Clemen, R.T., Kwit, R.C.: The value of decision analysis at Eastman Kodak company, 1990–1999. Interfaces 31(5), 74–92 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Daston, L.J.: Classical probability in the enlightenment. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ (1988)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Dubois, D., Prade, H., Sabbadin, R.: Decision-theoretic foundations of possibility theory. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 128(3), 459–478 (2001)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Ellsberg, D.: Risk, ambiguity and savage axioms. Q. J Econ. 75(4), 643–669 (1961)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Fine, C.H.: Clock Speed: Winning Industry Control in the Age of Temporary Advantage. Perseus Books, New York (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Giang, P.H., Shenoy, P.: Two axiomatic approaches to decision making using possibility theory. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 162(2), 450–467 (2005)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  13. Gilboa, I.: Expected utility with purely subjective nonadditive probabilities. J. Math. Econ. 16(1), 65–88 (1987)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  14. Guo, P.: One-shot decision approach and its application to Duopoly market. Int. J. Inf. Decis. Sci. 2(3), 213–232 (2010a)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Guo, P.: Private real estate investment analysis within one-shot decision framework. Int. Real Estate Rev. 13(3), 238–260 (2010b)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Guo, P.: One-shot decision theory. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part A Syst. Hum. 41(5), 917–926 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Guo, P., Tanaka, H.: Decision analysis based on fused double exponential possibility distributions. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 148(3), 467–479 (2003)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  18. Guo, P., Yan, R., Wang, J.: Duopoly market analysis within one-shot decision framework with asymmetric possibilistic information. J. Comput. Intell. Syst. 3(6), 786–796 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Kaha, B.E., Sarin, R.K.: Modelling ambiguity in decision under uncertainty. J. Consum. Res. 15(2), 265–272 (1988)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Kahneman, D., Tversky, A.: Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47(2), 263–291 (1979)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  21. Kahneman, D., Tversky, A. (eds.): Choices, Values, and Frames. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  22. Katsikopoulos, K.V., Gigerenzer, G.: One-reason decision-making: modeling violations of expected utility theory. J. Risk Uncertainty 37(1), 35–56 (2008)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  23. King, W.R.: Offshoring decision time is at hand. Inf. Syst. Manag. 23(1), 102–103 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Knight, F.H.: Risk. Uncertainty and Profit. Houghton Mifflin, Boston (1921)

    Google Scholar 

  25. List, J.A., Mason, C.F.: Are CEOs expected utility maximizers? J. Econometrics 162(1), 114–123 (2011)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  26. Loomes, G., Sugden, R.: Regret theory: an alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. Econ. J. 92(368), 805–824 (1982)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Savage, L.J.: The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley, New York (1954)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  28. Schmeidler, D.: Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity. Econometrica 57(3), 571–587 (1989)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  29. Segal, U.: The Ellsberg paradox and risk aversion: an anticipated utility approach. Int. Econ. Rev. 28(1), 175–202 (1987)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  30. Shafer, G.: Savage revisited. Stat. Sci. 1(4), 463–501 (1986)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  31. Shimanoff, S.B.: Commonly named emotions in everyday conversations. Percept. Mot. Skills 58(2), 514 (1984)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Sugden, R.: Regret, recrimination and rationality. Theor. Decis. 19(1), 77–99 (1985)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Von Neumann, J., Morgenstern, O.: Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1944)

    Google Scholar 

  34. Whalen, T.: Decision making under uncertainty with various assumptions about available information. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 14(6), 888–900 (1984)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  35. Yager, R.R.: Possibilistic decision making. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 9, 388–392 (1979)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Business Administration, Yokohama National University, 79-4 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya-ku, Yokohama, 240-8501 , Japan

    Peijun Guo

Authors
  1. Peijun Guo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Peijun Guo .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Business Administration, Yokohama National University, Yokohama, Japan

    Peijun Guo

  2. Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

    Witold Pedrycz

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Guo, P. (2014). One-Shot Decision Theory: A Fundamental Alternative for Decision Under Uncertainty. In: Guo, P., Pedrycz, W. (eds) Human-Centric Decision-Making Models for Social Sciences. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 502. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39307-5_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39307-5_2

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-39306-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-39307-5

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation