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Advances in Social Simulation pp 73–82Cite as

Saddle Points in Innovation Diffusion Curves: An Explanation from Bounded Rationality

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Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 229))

Abstract

Empirical evidence shows that mostly complete and successful processes of innovation diffusion are S-shaped. However, some diffusion processes exhibit a non-perfect S-curve, but show a saddle point, which is displayed as a double-S. The reasons behind this phenomenon have been little studied in the literature. This paper addresses the emergence of the double-S phenomenon in the innovation diffusion process and provides an explanation for it. In order to do that, the authors develop an agent-based simulation model to representing the diffusion of two innovations in a competitive market considering elements of bounded rationality. The results show saddle points appear as a result of three characteristics: (1) the heterogeneity in the population, (2) the presence of asymmetric information and (3) the satisfaction criterion for selection.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. sede Medellín, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Colombia

    Lorena Cadavid & Carlos Jaime Franco Cardona

Authors
  1. Lorena Cadavid
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  2. Carlos Jaime Franco Cardona
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Lorena Cadavid .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Decision Analysis and Support, School of Economics Institute of Econometrics, Warsaw, Poland

    Bogumił Kamiński

  2. Division of Decision Analysis and Support, School of Economics, Institute of Econometrics, Warsaw, Poland

    Grzegorz Koloch

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Cadavid, L., Cardona, C.J.F. (2014). Saddle Points in Innovation Diffusion Curves: An Explanation from Bounded Rationality. In: Kamiński, B., Koloch, G. (eds) Advances in Social Simulation. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 229. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39829-2_7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39829-2_7

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-39828-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-39829-2

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

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