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International Conference on Geo-Informatics in Resource Management and Sustainable Ecosystem

GRMSE 2013: Geo-Informatics in Resource Management and Sustainable Ecosystem pp 223–231Cite as

Runoff Response of Zamu River Basin to IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Northwest China

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Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 399))

Abstract

Predicting runoff response to climate change is useful in making the decision of water resources management in arid region. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the runoff of Zamu River, one of the inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Climate-change was predicted by the UK Hadley Centre’s Climate Model (HadCM3) under IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, and downscaled by statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for two periods: 1961–1990 (control) and 2010–2099 (scenario) to drive the SWAT model. SDSM predicted an increase trend of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation in the study area during the period of 2010–2099. Simulated runoff under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios changed by -10.6% - +1.17% and - 4% - +13%, respectively. The runoff tended to decline more significantly under SRES A2 (high GGa emissions) than under SRES B2 (low GGa emissions) in the future. The linear trend values were -0.048 and -0.018, respectively.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China

    Sufen Wang & Xin Liu

Authors
  1. Sufen Wang
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  2. Xin Liu
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Wuhan University, No. 37, Luoyu Road, 430079, Wuhan, Hubei, China

    Fuling Bian

  2. Institute for Geospatial Research and Education, Michigan University, 125 King Hall, 48197, Ypsilanti, MI, USA

    Yichun Xie

  3. Wuhan University, No 37 Luoyu Road, 430079, Wuhan, Hubei, China

    Xiaohui Cui  & Yixin Zeng  & 

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© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

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Wang, S., Liu, X. (2013). Runoff Response of Zamu River Basin to IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Northwest China. In: Bian, F., Xie, Y., Cui, X., Zeng, Y. (eds) Geo-Informatics in Resource Management and Sustainable Ecosystem. GRMSE 2013. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 399. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41908-9_22

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41908-9_22

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-41907-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-41908-9

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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