Abstract
Response variables and their driving factors often vary with time in the process of land use dynamic simulation; however, there are few existing literatures mentioned it.In order to evaluate the impact of time factor on urban land use simulation and to improve simulation accuracy, exponential smoothing method was adopted to improve Dyna-CLUE model, as an example of Chongqing Metropolitan Area. Results showed that accuracies of simulation results vary from smoothing coefficients. When the smoothing coefficient was 0.4, the accuracy of the simulation was highest, and the accuracy of simulation results has improved 3.51%, compared to the simulation results without smoothing. Results indicated that time factor has impact on simulation accuracies of urban land use dynamic changes to a certain extent. The possible reason may be that the exponential smoothing method updates the regression parameters dynamically. Exponential smoothing method was introduced into Dyna-CLUE model in this study and results show that simulation accuracy can be improved which reflects that time series plays an important role in the simulation of land use dynamic.
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Liu, M., Wang, Y., Li, D., Xia, B. (2013). Dyna-CLUE Model Improvement Based on Exponential Smoothing Method and Land Use Dynamic Simulation. In: Bian, F., Xie, Y., Cui, X., Zeng, Y. (eds) Geo-Informatics in Resource Management and Sustainable Ecosystem. GRMSE 2013. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 399. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41908-9_27
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41908-9_27
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