Abstract
Due to the human activities and climate change, the scarcity of water resources and the deterioration of water environment has been a serious problem in Haihe river basin. It is important to study water withdrawal and water utilization structure for sustainable use of water resources in this area. We analyzed the present water utilization structure of Haihe river basin by using the information entropy theory. Results show that water structure entropy value of Beijing and Tianjin is higher than other provinces in the basin and the whole basin, which matches the fact that the agricultural, industrial, domestic, and ecological water use are relatively balanced in Beijing and Tianjin while the proportion of agricultural water use is extremely large in other provinces of the basin. GM (1, 1) model and grey Markov model have been developed for simulation and predicting the evolution of water utilization structure in Haihe river basin. According to the results, the accuracy of grey Markov model was higher, which predicated the reduction of agricultural and industrial water consumption, and the increase of domestic and ecological water consumption in the future. Specifically, the model predicted that the proportion of water utilization structure in terms of ratio of agricultural, industrial, domestic, and ecological water use would change from 64.7:14.9:17.0:3.4 in 2011 to 63.4:12.2:20.2:4.2 in 2020, and the total water consumption will be reduced to 2.9 billion m3.
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Sun, H., Wang, S., Hao, X., Liu, X., Kang, J. (2013). Analysis and Trend Prediction of Water Utilization Structure in Haihe River Basin. In: Bian, F., Xie, Y., Cui, X., Zeng, Y. (eds) Geo-Informatics in Resource Management and Sustainable Ecosystem. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 398. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-45025-9_68
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-45025-9_68
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
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