Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Knowledge-based risk assessment and cost estimation

  • Published:
Automated Software Engineering Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A knowledge-based method for software project risk assessment and cost estimation has been implemented on multiple platforms. As an extension to the Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO), it aids in project planning by identifying, categorizing, quantifying and prioritizing project risks. It also detects cost estimate input anomalies and provides risk control advice in addition to conventional COCOMO cost and schedule calculation.

The method has been developed in conjunction with a system dynamics model of the software development process, and serves as an intelligent front end to the simulation model. It extends previous research in the knowledge-based cost estimation domain by focusing on risk assessment, incorporating substantially more rules, going beyond standard COCOMO, performing quantitative validation, providing a user-friendly interface, and integrating it with a dynamic simulation model.

Results of the validation are promising, and the method is being used at Litton Data Systems and other industrial environments. It will be undergoing further enhancement as part of an integrated capability for software engineering to assist in system acquisition, project planning and risk management.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Boehm, B. 1981.Software Engineering Economics. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boehm, B. 1989.Software Risk Management. Washington, D.C.: IEEE-CS Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boehm, B. 1992.Knowledge-based process assistance for large software projects, white paper in response to Rome Laboratories PRDS #92-08-PKRD, USC.

  • Boehm, B., Bose, P., Horowitz, E., Scacchi, W., et al. 1993. Next generation process models and their environment support.Proceedings of the USC Center for Software Engineering Convocation, USC.

  • Boehm, B., and Clark, B., Horowitz, E., Westland, C., Madachy, R., and Selby, R. 1995.Cost models for future software life cycle processes: COCOMO 2.0, to appear in Annals of Software Engineering Special Volume on Software Process and Product Measurement, J.D. Arthur and S.M. Henry (Eds.), J.C. Baltzer AG, Science Publishers, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boehm, B. Royce, W. 1989. Ada COCOMO and the Ada process model.Proceedings, Fifth COCOMO Users' Group Meeting, SEI.

  • Boehm, B. and Bose P. 1994. Critical success factors for knowledge-based software engineering applications.Proceedings of the Ninth Knowledge-Based Software Engineering Conference, Monterey, CA: IEEE Computer Society Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carr, M., Konda, S., Monarch, I., Ulrich, F., and Walker, C. 1993.Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification. Technical Report CMU/SEI-93-TR-06, Software Engineering Institute.

  • Charette, R. 1989.Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management. Intertext Publications/Multiscience Press and McGraw-Hill, New York, NY.

    Google Scholar 

  • Conte, S., Dunsmore, H., and Shen, V. 1986.Software Engineering Metrics and Models. Menlo Park, CA: Benjamin/Cummings Publishing Co., Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  • Day, V. 1987. Expert System Cost Model (ESCOMO) Prototype.Proceedings, Third Annual COCOMO Users' Group Meeting, SEI.

  • Green, C., Luckham, D., Balzer, R., Cheatham, T., and Rich, C. 1983.Report on a Knowledge-Based Software Assistant. Kestrel Institute, RADC#TR83-195, Rome Air Development Center, NY.

  • Madachy, R. 1994.A software project dynamics model for process cost, schedule and risk assessment. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, USC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rook, P. 1993. Cost estimation and risk management tutorial.Proceedings of the Eighth International Forum on COCOMO and Software Cost Modeling, SEI, Pittsburgh, PA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Royce, W. 1990.TRW's Ada process model for incremental development of large software systems. TRW-TS-90-01, TRW, Redondo Beach, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sabo, J. 1993.Process model advisor. CSCI 577A class project, University of Southern California.

  • Toth, G. 1994. Software technology risk advisor.Proceedings of the Ninth Knowledge-Based Software Engineering Conference, Monterey, CA: IEEE Computer Society Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. USC Center for Software Engineering, University of Southern California, 90089-0781, Los Angeles, CA

    Raymond J. Madachy

  2. Software Engineering Process Group, Litton Data Systems, 91376-6008, Agoura Hills, CA

    Raymond J. Madachy

Authors
  1. Raymond J. Madachy
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Madachy, R.J. Knowledge-based risk assessment and cost estimation. Autom Software Eng 2, 219–230 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00871798

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00871798

Keywords

Search

Navigation