Abstract
This work proposes a new algorithm called KNNN (k-nearest neighbours network) and demonstrates its use in a prediction task. The algorithm constructs estimators arranged in layers, using cross validation and kernel smoothing to achieve function approximation. Here it is compared to the back-propagation (with weight-elimination) algorithm in the prediction of future behavior of the benchmark sunspot series. The results show that KNNN can be applied successfully as an estimator.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Granger, C.W.J. and Andersen, A.P.: An Introduction to Bilinear Time Series Models. Gottingen: Vandenhoek and Ruprecht, 1978.
Tong, H.: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis: A Dynamical Systems Approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990.
Garbor, D. et al.: A universal nonlinear filter, predictor and simulator which optimizes itself by a learning process. Proc. IEEE, 108B, 422–438 (1961).
Lapedes, A. and Farber, R.: Nonlinear Signal Processing Using Neural Networks; Prediction and System Modelling, 1987.
Ivakhnenko, A.G.: Polynomial Theory of Complex Systems. IEEE TSMC, SMC-1 (4), 364–378 (1971).
Härdle, W.: Applied Nonparametric Regression. Cambridge University Press, 1989.
Loftsgaarden, D.O. and Quesenberry, G.P.: A Nonparametric Estimate of a Multivariate Density Function. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 1965.
Foukal, P.V.: The Variable Sun. Sci. Am, 1990.
Yule, G.U.: On a method of investigations periodicities in disturbed series with special reference to Wolfer's sunspot numbers. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. 1927.
Weigend, A.S., Huberman, B.A. and Rumelhart, D.E. Predicting the future: a connectionist approach. International Journal of Neural Systems, 1990.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1995 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Passos, E., Valente, R. (1995). An automatic adaptive neurocomputing algorithm for time series prediction. In: Wainer, J., Carvalho, A. (eds) Advances in Artificial Intelligence. SBIA 1995. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 991. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0034814
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0034814
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-60436-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-47467-8
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive