Abstract
This paper presents reduced-order nonlinear filtering schemes based on a theoretical framework that combines stochastic dimensional reduction and nonlinear filtering. Here, dimensional reduction is achieved for estimating the slow-scale process in a multiscale environment by constructing a filter using stochastic averaging results. The nonlinear filter is approximated numerically using the ensemble Kalman filter and particle filter. The particle filter is further adapted to the complexities of inherently chaotic signals. In particle filters, an ensemble of particles is used to represent the distribution of the state of the hidden signal. The ensemble is updated using observation data to obtain the best representation of the conditional density of the true state variables given observations. Particle methods suffer from the “curse of dimensionality,” an issue of particle degeneracy within a sample, which increases exponentially with system dimension. Hence, particle filtering in high dimensions can benefit from some form of dimensional reduction. A control is superimposed on particle dynamics to drive particles to locations most representative of observations, in other words, to construct a better prior density. The control is determined by solving a classical stochastic optimization problem and implemented in the particle filter using importance sampling techniques.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anderson, J.L.: An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter for data assimilation. Mon. Weather Rev. 129, 2884–2903 (2001)
Arulampalam, M.S., Maskell, S., Gordon, N., Clapp, T.: A tutorial on particle filters for online nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian tracking. IEEE Trans. Signal Process. 50(2), 174–188 (2002)
Bain, A., Crisan, D.: Fundamentals of Stochastic Filtering. Springer, Berlin (2009)
Crisan, D.: Particle approximations for a class of stochastic partial differential equations. Appl. Math. Opt. 54, 293–314 (2006)
Del Moral, P., Miclo, L.: Branching and Interacting Particle Systems Approximations of Feynman-Kac Formulae with Applications to Non-linear Filtering. Séminaire de Probabilités XXXIV. Lecture Notes in Mathematics, vol. 1729, pp. 1–145. Springer-Verlag, Berlin (2000)
Doucet, A.: On sequential simulation-based methods for Bayesian filtering. Technical report, Cambridge University (1998)
Eckmann, J.-P., Ruelle, D.: Ergodic theory of chaos and strange attractors. Rev. Mod. Phys. 57(3), 617–655 (1985)
Fatkullin, I., Vanden-Eijnden, E.: A computational strategy for multiscale systems. J. Comput. Phys. 200(2), 605–638 (2004)
Fleming, W. H.: Logarithmic Transformations and Stochastic Control, pp. 131–141. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1982. ISBN 978-3-540-39517-1. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0004532
Fleming, W.H.: Exit probabilities and optimal stochastic control. Appl. Math. Optim. 4, 329–346 (1978)
Gordon, N.J., Salmond, D.J., Smith, A.F.M.: Novel approach to nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian state estimation. IEEE Proc. F 140(2), 107–113 (1993)
Harlim, J., Kang, E.L.: Filtering partially observed multiscale systems with heterogeneous multiscale methods-based reduced climate models. Mon. Weather Rev. 140(3), 860–873 (2012)
Harlim, J., Majda, A.J.: Filtering nonlinear dynamical systems with linear stochastic models. Nonlinearity 21, 1281–1306 (2008)
Herrera, S., Paz, D., Fernandez, J., Rodriguez, M.A.: The role of large-scale spatial patterns in the chaotic amplification of perturbations in a Lorenz’96. Tellus 63, 978–990 (2011)
Imkeller, P., Namachchivaya, N.S., Perkowski, N., Yeong, H .C.: Dimensional reduction in nonlinear filtering: a homogenization approach. Ann. Appl. Probab. 23(6), 2290–2326 (2013)
Kappen, H.J.: Path integrals and symmetry breaking for optimal control theory. J. Stat. Mech. Theory Exp. 11, P11011 (2005)
Karatzas, I., Shreve, S.E.: Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus. Springer, New York (1988)
Kushner, H.J.: On the differential equations satisfied by conditional probability densities of Markov processes. SIAM J. Control 2, 106–119 (1964)
Lingala, N., Namachchivaya, N.S., Perkowski, N., Yeong, H.C.: Particle filtering in high-dimensional chaotic systems. Chaos Interdiscip. J. Nonlinear Sci. 22(4), 047509 (2012)
Lingala, N., Perkowski, N., Yeong, H.C., Namachchivaya, N Sri, Rapti, Z.: Optimal nudging in particle filters. Probab. Eng. Mech. 37, 160–169 (2014)
Liu, J.S.: Metropolized independent sampling with comparisons to rejection sampling and importance sampling. Stat. Comput. 6, 110–113 (1996)
Lorenz, E.: Predictability: a problem partly solved. In: Seminar on Predictability, ECMWF, 4–8 September 1995, Shinfield Park, Reading (1995). https://www.ecmwf.int/node/10829
Lorenz, E.N.: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130–131 (1963)
Lorenz, E., Emanuel, K.: Optimal sites for supplementary weather observations: simulation with a small model. J. Atmos. Sci. 55, 399–414 (1998)
Majda, A.J., Timofeyev, I., Vanden-Eijnden, E.: A mathematical framework for stochastic climate models. Commun. Pure Appl. Math. 54, 891–974 (2001)
Majda, A.J., Timofeyev, I., Vanden-Eijnden, E.: Systematic strategies for stochastic mode reduction in climate. J. Atmos. Sci. 60, 1705–1722 (2003)
Øksendal, B.: An Introduction to Malliavin Calculus with Applications to Economics, Lecture Notes (1997)
Ott, E., Hunt, B.R., Szunyogh, I., Zimin, A.V., Kostelich, E.J., Corazza, M., Kalnay, E., Patil, D.J., Yorke, J.A.: A local ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric data assimilation. Tellus 56A, 415–428 (2004)
Palmer, T.N., Gelaro, R., Barkmeijer, J., Buizza, R.: Singular vectors, metrics, and adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sci. 55, 633–653 (1998)
Papanicolaou, G. C., Stroock, D., Varadhan, S. R. S.: Martingale approach to some limit theorems. In Papers from the Duke Turbulence Conference (Duke Univ., Durham, N.C., 1976), Paper No. 6. Duke Univ., Durham, N.C. (1977)
Park, J.H., Namachchivaya, N .S., Sowers, R.B.: A problem in stochastic averaging of nonlinear filters. Stoch. Dyn. 8(3), 543–560 (2008)
Park, J.H., Sowers, R.B., Namachchivaya, N Sri: Dimensional reduction in nonlinear filtering. Nonlinearity 23(2), 305–324 (2010)
Park, J.H., Namachchivaya, N.S., Yeong, H .C.: Particle filters in a multiscale environment: homogenized hybrid particle filter. J. Appl. Mech. 78(6), 1–10 (2011)
Snyder, C., Bengtsson, T., Bickel, P., Anderson, J.: Obstacles to high-dimensional particle filtering. Mon. Weather Rev. 136(12), 4629–4640 (2008)
van Leeuwen, P.J.: Nonlinear data assimilation in geosciences: an extremely efficient particle filter. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136, 1991–1999 (2010)
van Leeuwen, P.J.: Efficient nonlinear data-assimilation in geophysical fluid dynamics. Comput. Fluids 46, 52–58 (2011)
Vanden-Eijnden, E.: Numerical techniques for multi-scale dynamical systems with stochastic effects. Commun. Math. Sci. 1(2), 385–391 (2003)
Weinan, E., Liu, D., Vanden-Eijnden, E.: Analysis of multiscale methods for stochastic differential equations. Commun. Pure Appl. Math. 58, 1544–1585 (2005)
Wilks, D.S.: Effects of stochastic parametrizations in the Lorenz ’96 model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 389–407 (2005)
Yeong, H. C.: Dimensional Reduction in Nonlinear Estimation of Multiscale Systems. PhD thesis, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (2018)
Zakai, M.: On the optimal filtering of diffusion processes. Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. Geb. 11(3), 230–243 (1969)
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under Grant Number FA9550-17-1-0001.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Communicated by Clarence W. Rowley.
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yeong, H.C., Beeson, R.T., Namachchivaya, N.S. et al. Particle Filters with Nudging in Multiscale Chaotic Systems: With Application to the Lorenz ’96 Atmospheric Model. J Nonlinear Sci 30, 1519–1552 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00332-020-09616-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00332-020-09616-x
Keywords
- Data assimilation
- Nonlinear filtering
- Homogenization
- Particle filter
- Ensemble Kalman filter
- Nudging
- Stochastic optimal control
- Lorenz ’96