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Uncertain Urn Problems and Ellsberg Experiment

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Abstract

The basic urn problem is to determine the probability of drawing one colored ball from an urn with known composition of differently colored balls. If the composition is unknown, then it is called uncertain. This paper designs some uncertain urn problems in order to compare probability theory and uncertainty theory. It is concluded that uncertainty theory is better than probability theory to deal with uncertain urn problems. As a by-product, this paper also solves the choice problem in Ellsberg experiment by chance theory.

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Funding

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant No. 61573210.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Baoding Liu

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  1. Baoding Liu
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Correspondence to Baoding Liu.

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The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this paper.

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This article does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors.

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Communicated by V. Loia.

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Liu, B. Uncertain Urn Problems and Ellsberg Experiment. Soft Comput 23, 6579–6584 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-018-3306-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-018-3306-7

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