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Adequacy of generating capacities under the aspects of demand, resources, emissions and costs until 2030

Erzeugungskapazitäten unter dem Aspekt von Bedarf, Ressourcen, Emissionen und Kosten bis 2030

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Today in many countries the load is still increasing. The future trend shows, that the increase will be lower but still by 2 % per year until 2030. The thermal power stations in many countries will then be of relevant age and will have to be replaced. In Europe there will be a need for up to 600.000 MW within the next decades, in Austria this will be 3.500 to 8.000 MW. In the paper it will be investigated what are the best strategies of a country to meet the following requirements:

  • Reduction of demand on fossil resources due to increasing costs and limited availability

  • Limitation of emissions of power plants to meet the conditions of the national emission limits due to the Kyoto Protocol

  • Competitiveness in generating costs in the liberalized electricity market

The ageing of power stations has the following consequences:

  • Low efficiency with higher demand for fossil resources

  • Higher emissions and higher costs for emission trading

  • Short term marginal costs as basis for generation price

In future it is necessary to replace the existing power stations by new technology. If e.g. all old Austrian fossil power stations would be replaced by newest gas combined cycle technology the Austria Kyoto reduction aim could be reached in the sector of electricity generation. The replacement of the thermal generation is influenced by the following conditions:

  • Price increase of natural gas until 2030

  • Emission costs until 2030

  • Long term marginal costs of power stations

  • Electricity price on the free European market

The result is that new installations of power stations will increase the electricity price for the end user (house hold) by about 10 %, but will decrease the specific demand on fossil resources and will limit emissions. The result is, that they can significantly contribute, however, they are not able to close the energy gap until 2030. In future it will be vitally necessary to take measures for energy saving.

In vielen Ländern steigt weiterhin der Strombedarf stark an. Es ist zu erwarten, dass auch zukünftig der Bedarf bis 2030 jährlich um 2 % ansteigt. Die thermischen Erzeugungskapazitäten werden bis dahin ihre Lebensdauergrenze überschritten haben und müssen ersetzt werden. In Europa wird ein Ersatzbedarf von 600.000 MW erwartet, in Österreich zwischen 3.500 und 8.000 MW. Dieser Beitrag behandelt die folgenden Aspekte: Möglichkeiten zur Reduktion des Bedarfs an fossilen Ressourcen durch mehr Effizienz und Minderungsmöglichkeiten der CO2-Emissionen. Die Erneuerung wird durch die Entwicklung der Preise für fossile Brennstoffe, die Handelspreise für Elektrizität an den Börsen und die Preise für Emissionszertifikate geprägt.

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Correspondence to G. Brauner.

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Brauner, G., Pöppl, G. Adequacy of generating capacities under the aspects of demand, resources, emissions and costs until 2030. Elektrotech. Inftech. 123, 559–562 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00502-006-0404-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00502-006-0404-5

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