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Non-tuned machine learning approach for hydrological time series forecasting

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Abstract

Stream-flow forecasting is a crucial task for hydrological science. Throughout the literature, traditional and artificial intelligence models have been applied to this task. An attempt to explore and develop better expert models is an ongoing endeavor for this hydrological application. In addition, the accuracy of modeling, confidence and practicality of the model are the other significant problems that need to be considered. Accordingly, this study investigates modern non-tuned machine learning data-driven approach, namely extreme learning machine (ELM). This data-driven approach is containing single layer feedforward neural network that selects the input variables randomly and determine the output weights systematically. To demonstrate the reliability and the effectiveness, one-step-ahead stream-flow forecasting based on three time-scale pattern (daily, mean weekly and mean monthly) for Johor river, Malaysia, were implemented. Artificial neural network (ANN) model is used for comparison and evaluation. The results indicated ELM approach superior the ANN model level accuracies and time consuming in addition to precision forecasting in tropical zone. In measureable terms, the dominance of ELM model over ANN model was indicated in accordance with coefficient determination (R 2) root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The results were obtained for example the daily time scale R 2 = 0.94 and 0.90, RMSE = 2.78 and 11.63, and MAE = 0.10 and 0.43, for ELM and ANN models respectively.

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Acknowledgements

Authors would like the acknowledge their gratitude and appreciate for the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID), Malaysia, for providing the river flow data set of the studied case study and their admirable cooperation. We are also grateful to the Editor and three anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil and Structural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

    Zaher Mundher Yaseen, Mohammed Falah Allawi, Othman Jaafar & Firdaus Mohamad Hamzah

  2. Water Resources Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University of Duhok, Duhok, Iraq

    Ali A. Yousif

  3. Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, University of Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

    Ahmed El-Shafie

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  1. Zaher Mundher Yaseen
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Yaseen, Z.M., Allawi, M.F., Yousif, A.A. et al. Non-tuned machine learning approach for hydrological time series forecasting. Neural Comput & Applic 30, 1479–1491 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-016-2763-0

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