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Discrete choice analysis of spatial attack sites

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Abstract

This paper presents an algorithm for the complete specification of multinomial discrete choice models to predict the spatial preferences of attackers. The formulation employed is a modification of models previously applied in transportation flow and crime analysis. A breaking and entering crime data set is employed to compare the efficacy of this model with traditional hot spot models. Discrete choice models are shown to perform as well as, or better than such models and offer more interpretable results.

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Notes

  1. The presentation of multinomial discrete choice models here is adapted from (Ben-Akiva and Lerman 1985) and is kept notationally consistent with that work when possible. A notable difference is that the presentation here assumes a single decision maker.

  2. Note that this formalization permits an element of the choice set to be selected in multiple observations, i.e., it is possible that s i =  s j for some i ≠  j.

  3. The selected predictors, ϕ30 and ϕ66, represent distance to the nearest federal highway and population density, respectively. The details of the relationship of these predictors to residential breaking and entering crime is outside the scope of this paper and left to criminologists to interpret.

  4. Readers interested in the specification and application of hot spot models using kernel density estimation are referred to Fotheringham et al. (2000). The use of kernel density estimation to model crime is extended to incorporate non-spatial attributes in Lia and Brown (2003).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400747, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA

    Michael A. Smith & Donald E. Brown

Authors
  1. Michael A. Smith
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  2. Donald E. Brown
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Correspondence to Donald E. Brown.

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Smith, M.A., Brown, D.E. Discrete choice analysis of spatial attack sites. ISeB 5, 255–274 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10257-007-0045-1

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