Summary
This paper estimates the long-term impact of journals aggregated in 24 different fields, using a simple logistic diffusion model, and relates the results to the current impact factor. Results show that while the current and the long-term impact factors have a high correlation coefficient, some fields are systematically slower-moving than others, as they often differ in the proportion of the overall impact through time that occurs in the short term.
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Contreras, C., Edwards, G. & Mizala, A. The Current Impact Factor and the long-term impact of scientific journals by discipline: A logistic diffusion model estimation. Scientometrics 69, 689–696 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-006-0165-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-006-0165-2