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A study of scientometric methods to identify emerging technologies via modeling of milestones

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Abstract

This work examines a scientometric model that tracks the emergence of an identified technology from initial discovery (via original scientific and conference literature), through critical discoveries (via original scientific, conference literature and patents), transitioning through Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) and ultimately on to commercial application. During the period of innovation and technology transfer, the impact of scholarly works, patents and on-line web news sources are identified. As trends develop, currency of citations, collaboration indicators, and on-line news patterns are identified. The combinations of four distinct and separate searchable on-line networked sources (i.e., scholarly publications and citation, patents, news archives, and on-line mapping networks) are assembled to become one collective network (a dataset for analysis of relations). This established network becomes the basis from which to quickly analyze the temporal flow of activity (searchable events) for the example subject domain we investigated.

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Notes

  1. A radar (or spider) chart is a graphical method of displaying multivariate data in the form of a two-dimensional chart of three or more quantitative variables represented on axes starting from the same point. The relative position and angle of the axes is typically uninformative. Yet certain patterns may emerge. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_chart for details.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to humbly thank the reviewers for their excellent suggestions during the actual conference (Abercrombie & Udoeyup 2011) and during the preparation of this paper. An extended version of a paper presented at the 13th International Conference on Scientometrics and Informetrics, Durban (South Africa), 4–7 July 2011 (Abercrombie and Udoeyup 2011).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Computational Sciences and Engineering, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831-6085, USA

    Robert K. Abercrombie & Bob G. Schlicher

  2. Cisco Systems, Advanced Security Initiatives Group, 10860 Murdock Drive, Knoxville, TN, 37932-3232, USA

    Akaninyene W. Udoeyop

Authors
  1. Robert K. Abercrombie
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  2. Akaninyene W. Udoeyop
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  3. Bob G. Schlicher
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Correspondence to Robert K. Abercrombie.

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This manuscript has been authored by a contractor of the U.S. Government (USG) under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. Accordingly, the USG retains a nonexclusive, royalty-free license to publish or reproduce the published form of this contribution, or allow others to do so, for USG purposes.

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Abercrombie, R.K., Udoeyop, A.W. & Schlicher, B.G. A study of scientometric methods to identify emerging technologies via modeling of milestones. Scientometrics 91, 327–342 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-011-0614-4

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