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Detecting latent referential articles based on their vitality performance in the latest 2 years

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Abstract

In this paper, we propose a methodology to detect latent referential articles through a universal, citation-based investigation. We discuss articles’ dynamic vitality performance, concealed in their citation distributions, in order to understand the mechanisms that govern which articles are likely to be referenced in the future. Articles have diverse vitality performances expressed in the amount of citations obtained in different time periods. Through an examination of the correlation between articles’ future citation count and their past citations, we establish the optimal time period during which it is best to forecast articles’ future referential possibilities. The results show that the latest 2 years is the optimal time period. In other words, the correlation between the articles’ future citation count and their past citation count reaches a maximum value in the most recent 2-year period. The articles with a higher vitality performance in the most recent 2 years have a higher ratio of being cited as references in the future. These results help, not only, in understanding mechanisms of generating references, but also provide an additional indicator for decision makers to evaluate the academic performance of individuals according to their citation performance in the latest 2 years.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the special funds of Central College Basic Scientific Research Bursary (Grant No. 2572014DB05), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71473034), and the financial assistance from Postdoctoral Scientific Research Developmental Fund of Heilongjiang Province (Grant No. LBH-Q16003).

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  1. College of Information and Computer Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, 150040, People’s Republic of China

    Mingyang Wang, Shi Li & Guangsheng Chen

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  1. Mingyang Wang
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  2. Shi Li
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Correspondence to Mingyang Wang.

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Wang, M., Li, S. & Chen, G. Detecting latent referential articles based on their vitality performance in the latest 2 years. Scientometrics 112, 1557–1571 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-017-2433-8

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