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New health-state assessment model based on belief rule base with interpretability

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Abstract

Health-state assessment is the foundation of optimal-maintenance decision-making for complex systems to maintain reliability and safety. Generating the assessment results in a convincing and interpretable way to avoid potential risks is of great importance. Belief rule base (BRB) as an interpretable model performs well in health-state assessment. However, the interpretability of a BRB-based model may be lost during the optimization process, which is expressed mainly as three problems: expert knowledge is not effectively used in the optimization process; the optimized rules of BRB may be in conflict with real systems; and some parameters get over-optimized, which may affect experts’ initial judgment. Three concepts — “searching intensity”, “interpretability constraint of belief distribution”, and “rule-activation factor” — are defined to address these problems. Using these concepts, we propose a new health-state assessment model based on the interpretable BRB and a new optimization method to improve the accuracy and preserve the interpretability of the new model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we conducted an aero-engine case study.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61773388, 61702142, 61751304, 61833016, 61867001), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 2015M570847, 2016T90938), Key Research and Development Plan of Hainan (Grant No. ZDYF2019007), Natural Science Foundation of Hainan (Grant No. 2019CXTD405), and Guangxi Key Laboratory of Trusted Software (Grant No. KX202050).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. High-Tech Institute of Xi’an, Xi’an, 710025, China

    Zhijie Zhou, You Cao, Guanyu Hu, Shuaiwen Tang & Yuan Chen

  2. Department of Mechanical, Industrial and Aerospace Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal, H3G 1M8, Canada

    Youmin Zhang

  3. Department of Information and Control Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, 710048, China

    Zhijie Zhou & Youmin Zhang

  4. School of Computer Science and Information Security, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, 541004, China

    Guanyu Hu

Authors
  1. Zhijie Zhou
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  2. You Cao
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  3. Guanyu Hu
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  4. Youmin Zhang
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  5. Shuaiwen Tang
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  6. Yuan Chen
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Correspondence to Guanyu Hu.

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Zhou, Z., Cao, Y., Hu, G. et al. New health-state assessment model based on belief rule base with interpretability. Sci. China Inf. Sci. 64, 172214 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11432-020-3001-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11432-020-3001-7

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