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Multiple step ahead river flow modelling for south east tasmanian aquaculture

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Abstract

We develop multiple step ahead prediction models of river flow for locations in Tasmania (Australia) for decision support in aquaculture. In predicting river flows for multiple days ahead, we first statistically determine the maximum input lags of rainfall and river flow. We then use machine learning techniques in building models. In multiple step ahead prediction, we consider both static and dynamic approaches. In dynamic approach, one day prediction is served as input to two days ahead prediction. The experimental results demonstrate that, in general, a dynamic approach provides better accuracy in multiple day’s ahead prediction. For Duck Bay location using dynamic approach, support vector regression performs best over linear regression, M5P and multilayer perceptron. However, at Montagu Bay location, we find that M5P performs best over methods. We find that multiple step ahead prediction of river flow for each location requires modelling of lags with associated machine learning techniques.

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Acknowledgments

The Intelligent Sensing and Systems Laboratory and the Tasmanian node of the Australian Centre for Broadband Innovation were assisted by a grant from the Tasmanian Government which was administered by the Tasmanian Department of Economic Development, Tourism and the Arts. This research was also supported with Aquaculture Decision Support (AquaDS) project under the CSIRO Food Futures Flagship. We acknowledge Doug Palmer, Daniel Hugo, Chris Sharman, Ashfaqur Rahman, Daniel Smith, Claire D’Este and Greg Smith for their insightful comments and helpful feedback.

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Correspondence to Md. Sumon Shahriar.

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Communicated by: H. A. Babaie

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Shahriar, M.S., Kamruzzaman, M., McCulloch, J. et al. Multiple step ahead river flow modelling for south east tasmanian aquaculture. Earth Sci Inform 9, 271–279 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-015-0247-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-015-0247-x

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