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Study of climate change effects on hydrological processes in Siminehroud and Zarrinehroud watersheds northwest of Iran

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Abstract

This study sets out to simulate various hydrological responses to climate change. The semi-distributed hydrologic model of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT, was used to simulate different parts of the hydrological cycles. The comprehensive assessment of the effect of climate change on runoff, crop yield, and water balance in Siminehroud and Zarrinehroud watersheds is the novelty of this research. The simulation period was from 1988 to 2014. The runoff model was calibrated using the plant parameters, and the initial crop yield was used to calibrate the model. During the calibration and validation periods, the statistical measures, namely NS and R2, were obtained as 0.69 and 0.82, respectively. Using the multisite statistical downscaling of the LARS-WG climate model, we introduced the future climatic conditions as inputs to the model based on two optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios. The most significant changes in the runoff in the upcoming period, was in June, reduced by 4.2 m3s−1, and in May, increased by 4.8 m3s−1 in the optimistic scenario. In the RCP8.5 pessimistic scenario, the most significant runoff change was observed in June and October. The results indicated that these changes would lead to a decrease in the main crops across the region.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Forest, Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Parvaneh Mahmudi & Baharak Motamedvaziri

  2. Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

    Majid Hosseini

  3. Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

    Hasan Ahmadi

  4. Kurdistan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Sanandaj, Iran

    Ata Amini

Authors
  1. Parvaneh Mahmudi
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  2. Baharak Motamedvaziri
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  3. Majid Hosseini
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  4. Hasan Ahmadi
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  5. Ata Amini
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Baharak Motamedvaziri.

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Communicated by: H. Babaie

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Mahmudi, P., Motamedvaziri, B., Hosseini, M. et al. Study of climate change effects on hydrological processes in Siminehroud and Zarrinehroud watersheds northwest of Iran. Earth Sci Inform 14, 965–974 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-021-00598-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-021-00598-2

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