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A Broad Learning System with Ensemble and Classification Methods for Multi-step-ahead Wind Speed Prediction

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Abstract

Short-term wind speed prediction plays a significant role in the management of large-scale wind power plants. However, wind speed prediction is extremely complex and difficult due to the volatility and non-linearity of wind. For this purpose, a broad learning system (BLS) with ensemble and classification named BLS-EC is proposed to predict multi-step-ahead wind speed. The proposed method is based on a new neural network termed the BLS, which could work out the complex non-linear relation by learning model while ensuring the computational efficiency. To overcome the randomness and instability of a single BLS, this paper proposes the BLS ensemble method to improve the generalization and stability of the network. In order to improve the accuracy of prediction, a method called classification-guided regression is proposed to distinguish different variation patterns of initial predicted wind speed. According to the classification result, different pattern sequences are re-predicted to obtain the final prediction result. Applying this thinking and method into research of three real-time wind speed datasets which were taken from Sotavento Galicia SA (SG), Alberta (ALB), and Newfoundland (NFL), the validity and practical value of this method can be demonstrated. Results obtained clearly show that BLS is better than existing methods ARIMA and RBF. Moreover, the BLS-EC method improved generalization performance and the predicting precision of a single BLS. In this study, the BLS-EC was proposed and successfully applied to wind speed prediction.

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Funding

The work was financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China under Grant 2017YFC1501301; the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 61876219, 61503144, 61673188, and 61761130081; the Excellent Dissertation Cultivation Funds of Wuhan University of Technology (2018-YS-066); and the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province of China under Grant 2017CFB519.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Lingzi Zhu, Cheng Lian & Yixin Su

  2. School of Artificial Intelligence and Automation, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Zhigang Zeng

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  1. Lingzi Zhu
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  2. Cheng Lian
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  3. Zhigang Zeng
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  4. Yixin Su
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Correspondence to Cheng Lian.

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Zhu, L., Lian, C., Zeng, Z. et al. A Broad Learning System with Ensemble and Classification Methods for Multi-step-ahead Wind Speed Prediction. Cogn Comput 12, 654–666 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12559-019-09698-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12559-019-09698-0

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