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Fuzzy Piecewise Logistic Growth Model for Innovation Diffusion: A Case Study of the TV Industry

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Abstract

The logistic model is adopted in order to fit growth trends of innovative products for a single growth process. In the current competitive environment, we are incapable of predicting a product’s life cycle such that it can be described as a smooth S curve. Given this, we propose the use of a fuzzy piecewise regression model as a revision of the traditional logistic model. While no proper probability distribution for market share data currently exists, the proposed method is not only able to detect change-points, but can also identify predicted intervals when the growth trend of an analyzed generation is affected by other product generations. The market shares of four television technologies are used in order to demonstrate the performance of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the logistic model, providing both the best and worst possible market shares for the corresponding generation, and highlighting the time of impact of external influences by identifying change-points.

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Acknowledgment

The authors gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments and suggestions of the reviewers, which have improved the quality of the paper. This research is supported by the National Science Council, Taiwan (NSC 99-2410-H-260-045 and MOST 101-2410-H-155-008-MY2).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Information Management, National Chi Nan University, 470, University Rd., Puli Nantou, 545, Taiwan

    Jing Rung Yu

  2. College of Management, Innovation Center of Big Data and Digital Convergence, Yuan Ze University, 135 Yuan-Dung Rd., Chung-Li, Taoyuan, 320, Taiwan

    Fang-Mei Tseng

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  1. Jing Rung Yu
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  2. Fang-Mei Tseng
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Correspondence to Fang-Mei Tseng.

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Yu, J.R., Tseng, FM. Fuzzy Piecewise Logistic Growth Model for Innovation Diffusion: A Case Study of the TV Industry. Int. J. Fuzzy Syst. 18, 511–522 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40815-015-0066-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40815-015-0066-8

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