Pathways for electric power industry to achieve carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality based on LEAP model: A case study of state-owned power generation enterprise in China

Highlights

• A LEAP model of electric power industry is proposed.

• Carbon neutrality pathways for electric power industry is investigated.

• CCUS is crucial to achieving CO₂ reduction while maintaining power security.

• Biomass with CCUS is an important technology for achieving carbon neutrality.

Abstract

Global climate change is a growing concern for the international community. China has played an active and constructive role in the global combat against climate change. Given the dominating role of coal in China’s power supply mix, it is especially urgent to find pathways for the electric power industry to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Using the case of a state-owned power generation enterprise, this paper explores pathways for the Enterprise to reach carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality in five scenarios based on the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. The modeling process takes into consideration of technologies’ learning curve of generation technologies, carbon capture rate, and environmental cost (carbon price) for fossil fuel generators. The LEAP model simulates the structure of the electric power supply, CO₂ emissions from power generation, total costs (including capital cost, O&M cost, fuel cost and carbon price), and carbon capture costs. The results show that carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is crucial to achieving CO₂ reduction while maintaining a certain amount of thermal power installed capacity to ensure grid system inertia and security. Biomass power coupled with CCUS is an important carbon negative technology for achieving carbon neutrality. Based on simulations and scenario analysis, this paper proposes policy recommendations for the electric power industry to realize carbon emissions peaking and carbon neutrality.

Introduction

To stay within the temperature increase limit set by the Paris Agreement, it is urgent to make unprecedented efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IPCC, 2018). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), emissions from the electric power industry account for more than 41% of total CO₂ emissions worldwide and it is expected to continue to be the fastest growing emission source until 2050 (IEA, 2012). In China, the coal-fired power capacity accounts for 56.6% and power generation accounts for 67.9% of the total in 2020.

That being said, China’s climate policy and activities, especially those related to the power sector, has a tremendous effect on the international efforts to combat climate change. China has announced its goal to peak its CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, and has actively engaged in global cooperative actions to accelerate emission reductions. Moreover, China has declared the deployment and application of technology such as carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) and direct air capture (DAC) in U.S.-China Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020 s signed in Glasgow Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 26). Therefore, it is urgent to investigate the pathways of reaching carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality for electric power industry.

Several studies have focused on the peaking paths of cities and several industrial sectors. Regarding provinces and cities, Huo, Xu, Feng, Cai, and Liu, 2021 analyzed the pathway of carbon emissions peak in city-scale urban residential sector by combining Monte Carlo and LEAP model (Huo et al., 2021). Shimoda, Sugiyama, Nishimoto, and Momonoki, 2021 used TREES model to evaluate the decarbonization scenarios for Japanese residential sector achieving net zero emission (Shimoda et al., 2021). The result showed that the building-integrated solar photovoltaic systems has become a key issue in achieving net zero energy. Sectoral carbon abatement is key in achieving individual Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) goals. Fang, Li, Tang, He, and Song, 2022 used regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the pathway of carbon peak for industrial sectors (Fang et al., 2022). Liu et al. (2021a) analyzed pathways of carbon neutrality for different cities based on LEAP model. The result shows that industry sector always dominates most CO₂ emissions (Liu, Chen, Jiang, & Kaghembega, 2021). Under the 2 °C targets, Liu et al. (2021b) analyzed the low-carbon pathways at sectoral level based on energy system model (Liu et al., 2021). Electric power industry plays a dominant in carbon abatement. Particularly nuclear, renewables, conventional fuels with CCS, and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) are key low-carbon technologies (Duan et al., 2021). Kehbila, Masumbuko, Ogeya, and Osano, 2021 established LEAP model to assess the transition pathways of electricity generation in Kenya and simulated the carbon mitigation potentials (Kehbila et al., 2021). Meanwhile, carbon abatement cost and carbon price were investigated in the pathways of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Chen et al. (2021) investigated the carbon abatement cost of electrical alternatives strategy by a cross-sector and high-resolution assessment model (Chen et al., 2021). It indicated that carbon neutrality can be realized economically by mid-century with optimal planning.

Energy system analysis is a complex process addressing energy and climate challenges and requiring a deep understanding of the pathway of achieving environmental target (Di Leo, Caramuta, Curci, & Cosmi, 2020). For energy system planning and carbon emission abatement simulation, the bottom-up model, LEAP model is frequently be utilized (Cai et al., 2013). It has some prominent advantages and mainly uses the scenario analysis framework to analyze the pathway of energy alternatives implication, while enabling GHGs reduction strategies (Cai and Guo, 2018). Maduekwe et al. (2020) employed LEAP model to project future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions for energy planning selection in Lagos, Nigeria (Maduekwe et al., 2020). Yang, Liu, Huang, Lin, and Xu, 2021 established LEAP model to examine the environmental and socio-economic effects of renewable energy development in Zhangjiakou from 2016 to 2050 (Yang et al., 2021). Cai, Wang, Wang, Zhang, and Chen, 2007 assessed the reduction potential of CO₂ emissions in China’s power sector and simulated different development paths (Cai et al., 2007). Nieves, Aristizábal, Dyner, Báez, and Ospina, 2019 utilized LEAP model to analyze the energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions produced in Colombia (Nieves et al., 2019). LEAP model was also used to predict GHG emissions for oil and natural gas production, which will assist in prioritizing national mitigation measures (Felver, 2020). Emodi, Emodi, Murthy, and Emodi, 2017 used LEAP model to explore Nigerian energy system including energy demand, supply and associated GHG emissions from 2010 to 2040 (Emodi, Emodi, Murthy, & Emodi, 2017). Pan et al. (2013) used LEAP model to predict the reduction effect of chief atmospheric pollutants in Beijing from 2010 to 2020 (Pan et al., 2013).

The LEAP model is based on scenario simulation and has built-in Technology and Environmental Database (TED) for GHG mitigation assessment (Heaps, 2020). As previous studies show, the LEAP model is flexible, and is a widely used energy- economic-environment modeling tool by institutions, governments, companies, and other for-and non-for-profit organizations. Thus, LEAP is appropriate for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment.

This paper explores the pathways for a typical stated-owned power generation enterprise (the Enterprise) in China to achieve carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality during the study period of 2020 to 2060 in five Scenarios based on the LEAP model. The main contributions of this work include: 1) clean energy target, carbon peak and carbon neutrality target are as constraints for the modeling process; 2) learning curves of technologies and carbon capture rate are considered in the model calculation; 3) the comparison of carbon capture cost and carbon price are investigated; 4) negative carbon effect of biomass generation with CCUS is simulated.

This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the methodology and scenarios design. Section 3 presents the modeling results related to pathways, CO₂ emissions, and total costs. Finally, conclusions are summarized, and recommendations are proposed in Section 4.